This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this writing will be corrected when/if the NTSB preliminary report is released.
https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N15380
- History of Flight:
On August 26, 2026, at about 1318 local time, a privately-registered Piper PA-24-260 Comanche, N9485P, sustained substantial damage when it was involved in an accident in Seldovia, Alaska. The private pilot and three passengers were fatally injured. The flight originated from Merrill Field (MRI/PAMR), Anchorage, Alaska, and was destined to SOV.
Preliminary information indicates the airplane clipped trees during an attempted go-around and crashed into the Seldovia Slougon. The airplane was submerged in 15 ft of water. There is no ADS-B data for the accident flight.
The pilot, aged 68, held a private pilot certificate with an airplane single engine land rating. The pilot did not hold an instrument rating. His FAA BasicMed Course was dated 10/17/2025.
At 1253, the recorded weather included winds 010 at 5 knots, 10 miles visibility, few clouds at 1,200 ft AGL, temperature 14 °C, dewpoint 11 °C, and an altimeter setting of 30.06 inches of mercury.
At 1346, the recorded weather included winds 040 at 7 knots, 10 miles visibility, few clouds at 800 ft AGL, temperature 13 °C, dewpoint 11 °C, and an altimeter setting of 30.07 inches of mercury.
The accident airplane, serial number 24-4999, was manufactured in 1971. It was a 4-seat, low wing, all-metal monoplane of semimonocoque construction with a retractable landing. It was powered by a Lycoming TI0-540 SER engine.
- Weather:
METAR PASO 262053Z AUTO 01005KT 10SM FEW012 14/11 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP179 T01390111 51007 TSNO $
SPECI PASO 262146Z AUTO 04007KT 10SM FEW008 13/11 A3007 RMK AO2 T01330106 TSNO $
- Area Forecast Discussion:
160 FXAK68 PAFC 261334 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 534 AM AKDT Wed Aug 26 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... Key Messages: - Another round of rainfall Thursday night through Friday over the Susitna Valley will allow for rises on many small streams and rivers, and localized ponding in low-lying or poor drainage areas. Discussion: The system that brought widespread rainfall across Southcentral yesterday has mostly departed the area as of this morning. The low has lifted into the NE corner of Alaska with front now pushing across the Canadian Yukon. There are some lingering showers still ongoing this morning over the SE corner of the Copper Basin, but these will continue to weaken and dissipate through the morning. While a drier airmass has moved in behind the aforementioned system, some areas have hung on to a mid-level cloud deck overnight. Temperatures have also fallen as the drier airmass pushes in with morning temperatures dropping into the 40s for most areas. Fog has tried to form in some of these areas that have cleared out, but have had to compete with falling dewpoints. The most widespread area of fog has developed along portions of the Glenn Highway north of Anchorage and into Palmer-Wasilla and on up towards Willow. Most of the fog has been relatively light with visibilities of 1 to 3 miles, but there have been some pockets of dense fog where visibility has dropped below 1 mile at times. As such, have issued an SPS for fog in this area until 9 AM this morning. Could see a few more areas of fog pop up near sunrise before diurnal heating starts to mix out the boundary layer. More seasonable temperatures today with drier conditions as we remain under westerly to northwesterly flow aloft. A weak shortwave moving through the flow later today could spark some showers along the Alaska Range and Talkeetna Mountains. An upper ridge will build into western Alaska tonight then translate east with time. Thursday will be the driest day for Southcentral with high pressure over the region; however, another strong system will bring another round of widespread rainfall beginning late Thursday and Friday. Cloud cover increases Thursday afternoon and evening from west to east as the next system approaches from the Bering. Widespread precipitation will spill over the Alaska Range into Kodiak Island and western Southcentral late Thursday night and spread across all of Southcentral on Friday. Precipitation will be heaviest along the northern Gulf Coast into the Chugach Mountains. Southwest winds will strengthen in the western Gulf and Shelikof Strait to small-craft by Friday morning. Additionally, a surface low looks to develop in the northern Gulf Friday morning. Depending on the strength of the pressure gradient with the coastal ridge, this will enhance easterly and southeasterly winds Friday, especially in properly aligned gaps (Turnagain Arm, Knik River, and Barrier Jet). - PP/PA && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Saturday morning)... Key Message: A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Kuskokwim Delta, Western Capes, and Northern Bristol Bay coast from 10AM Thursday to 4PM Friday. South to southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph are expected. Discussion: As of this morning, westerly winds in the wake of yesterday`s low pressure system has advected in the marine layer for the Southwest Alaska coastline, yielding areas of low stratus and patchy fog for the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay areas. Aside from that, expect relatively quiet weather for a ~24 hour period as transient ridging situates itself across the Eastern Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and eastern Bering. Meanwhile, an occluded low pressure system is moving near the Western Aleutians, giving Shemya a round of heavy rainfall and southerly small craft winds with gusts approaching gale force. While the parent low moves almost due north of the Western Aleutians, its front is progged to traverse the Bering and Aleutians through the short term forecast period. Not only does the front strengthen into a gale force front Thursday morning, there will be a plethora of moisture transport from the Pacific associated as well riding up and along the boundary, which will make this quite a wet system as it progresses eastward. One thing models are picking up on is the likelihood of a secondary area of low pressure forming in response to lowering pressure ahead of the digging upper level trough/closed low tied to the aforementioned occluded surface low, which could help to enhance rainfall amounts with this system. Conditions deteriorate quickly for the Pribilof Islands mid Thursday morning as southerly sustained gales approach from the west, with winds gusting as high as 55 mph. The good news for the Pribilof Islands is that the axis of strongest winds will quickly move in and out of the area and will begin decreasing Thursday afternoon. For rainfall, the Pribilofs are on track to receive 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall from this system. By late Thursday morning to Thursday afternoon, rain and wind pushes eastward, with the strongest winds again looking to push from Kuskokwim Bay across the Delta before this core of strong winds shifts south and over Bristol Bay. One change is that the trailing wave looks stronger with a persistently strong southwesterly wind flow pushing back across Kuskokwim Bay and Delta into Friday. This continued push of winds will likely result in higher waves and rough seas along the Kuskokwim Bay coast, especially during high tide Friday afternoon. Current probabilistic extra-tropical storm surge guidance suggests that water levels will be pushed 1.5 to 2 feet above the normal high tide line for the Kuskokwim Bay. On the rainy side of things, southwest Alaska is on track to receive 1 to 2 inches of rainfall from this system through Friday afternoon. Expect continued southwesterly small craft winds for the southern Bering and Bristol Bay region into Saturday morning as the heaviest of rainfall comes to an end for Southwest Alaska and conditions become more showery in nature. By Saturday morning, high pressure returns to the Bering with gap winds for the Alaska Peninsula returning in the wake of this system. -AM/TM && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Monday)... The active, progressive pattern continues into early next week as multiple systems track from west to east. This will generally bring periods of active weather, with lulls in between for Southwest and Southcentral Alaska. By Saturday, a trough will be over much of Alaska. This will likely bring widespread rainfall and elevated winds to coastal and mainland Southcentral and Southwest Alaska. This trough will quickly push eastward and weak ridging/zonal flow will set in, allowing for wind speeds and rainfall to dwindle. The Bering will see a trough with an associated front move in from the west. Sunday will see this front progress eastward, leading to a swath of rainfall and gusty winds across the Aleutians. However, the exact intensity and path of this weather is uncertain as of now. For Southcentral, ridging will continue, with lighter winds and clearer skies. Uncertainty increases on Monday as a low moves into the Bering. The exact track of it cannot be determined at this point, but gusty winds and rainfall will likely arise somewhere along the Aleutians. A plume of moisture riding up and around a ridge in the North Pacific will lead to heavier rainfall with this low. Again, the exact rainfall amounts will depend on the track of the low moving into the Bering. Southcentral will have a low move into the Gulf of Alaska. Once again, there is much uncertainty with wind speeds and rainfall intensity with them being highly dependent on how strong the low is. -JAR && .AVIATION... PANC...Light winds and VFR conditions are anticipated through the prevailing period. However, light winds and high pressure building over the region may allow for pockets of fog to develop near the terminal around sunrise both this morning and Thursday morning. && $$
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