This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this writing will be corrected when/if the NTSB preliminary report is released.
https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N202DK
- History of Flight:
On July 9, 2026, at about 2248 local time, a Beechcraft 95-B55 Baron, N202DK, registered to Auto Key Masters and Locksmith LLC out of Watts, Oklahoma, was destroyed when it was involved in an accident near Waterloo, Illinois. The two non-instrument rated private pilots were fatally injured. The personal flight originated from St. Louis Regional Airport (ALN/KALN), St. Louis, Illinois, at 2226, and was destined to Smith Field Airport (SLG/KSLG), Siloam Springs, Arkansas.
According to preliminary flight-tracking history, on July 9, at 1438, the airplane departed Sallisaw Municipal Airport (JSV/KJSV), Sallisaw, Oklahoma, on a flight to SLG. The airplane landed at 1500, and departed at 1644 on a flight to ALN. The airplane landed in Saint Louis at 1827. The purpose of the flight was to watch a St. Louis Cardinals game.
According to Automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) data, the airplane departed runway 11 at St. Louis and proceeded to enter a climbing right hand turn to an altitude of 5,100 ft. At 2245, the airplane started a descent from that altitude. At 2246, the airplane entered a right hand turn with a reported descent rate of 1400 feet per minute (fpm). At 2246:38, the airplane stopped the turn and was now flying at 4,400 ft. At 2247:39, the airplane entered a left hand turn to the south. At 2247:53, the airplane was seen on a 2500 fpm descent. The airplane descended to about 4,000 ft before it began a very steep climb with a reported rate of 7360 fpm. At 2248:15, the airplane reached the crest of that climb at 5,100 ft before it began another rapid descent that continued until the end of the track. At one point, the reported descent rate was 11260 fpm. The last ADS-B data point was recorded at 2248:40, the airplane was at 2,000 ft, 157 knots groundspeed, and 3000 fpm descent rate.
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| Figure 1: ADS-B exchange track ran through Flysto |
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| Figure 2: Airplane entering left hand turn towards end of track |
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| Figure 3: Crest of climb |
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| Figure 4: Descent after the climb |
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Figure 5: End of track
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- Pilot Information:
The pilot, aged 48, held a private pilot certificate with an airplane single engine land and multi engine land ratings. His third class FAA medical was issued on 9/2024. The pilot did not hold an instrument rating.
The pilot's son, aged 22, held a private pilot certificate with an airplane single engine land rating. His third class FAA medical was issued on 9/2024. The pilot did not hold an instrument rating.
- Airplane Information:
The accident airplane, serial number TC-2152, was manufactured in 1978. It was a six-seat twin-engine monoplane with a retractable tricycle landing gear configuration. The airplane was powered by two 260 HP Continental IO-470L reciprocating engines, each engine drove a three-bladed McCauley propeller.
According to a sale listing for the accident aircraft, it was equipped with a Garmin GNS430W GPS and Century IV autopilot.
- Weather Information:
According to weather imagery from the time of the accident, severe conditions were present in the region and directly in the airplane's flight track. A convective SIGMET was active at the time for the region. Two nearby airports were reporting possible thunderstorms as well.
According to the National Weather Service (NWS) Area Forecast Discussion for St Louis Missouri, issued at 0621 PM CDT (1821 LT) Thu Jul 9 2026:
"The main concern will be scattered showers and thunderstorms developing at various times through the upcoming period. However, confidence in these affecting any one TAF site is fairly low. This evening`s thunderstorms are likely to occur south of the St Louis metro, but may impact parts of central Missouri with JEF the most likely to be impacted. Otherwise we expect primarily mid level cloud decks well within the VFR range. Additional thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon area wide, but confidence remains low on where or when."
314 FXUS63 KLSX 092321 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 621 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A flash flood watch is in effect through Friday night in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois, with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected. - Some storms this evening and again Friday afternoon/evening may be strong to severe with damaging winds the primary threat each day. - Dry weather along with above normal temperatures are forecast Sunday through the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 GOES-19 visible satellite imagery shows 3, maybe 4 MCVs across the region all moving eastward. One is near K3LF and the other near KUIN. Both of these features has recently led to convective initiation just east/southeast of each of these in west central and south-central Illinois. One or two of these storms may be on the stronger side with damaging winds the primary threat. More convective development is expected by early this evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Moisture convergence associated with the low-level jet will also increase, and this combined with an uptick in midlevel ascent downstream of the upstream MCVs (one near OK-KS border and another possible MCV near KSTJ) should lead to more widespread showers and thunderstorms. This activity is expected to focus mainly across southeast Missouri. Concern for flash flooding is increasing, as training is expected through the early overnight hours in an environment that is supportive of high rainfall rates (deep warm cloud depths, anomalous precipitable water values). New cells should develop on the west/northwest flank of the activity through the early overnight hours as the low-level jet veers from the southwest to the west. Past events with these setups tend to have a narrow west/northwest to east/southeast axis of very heavy rainfall on the west/southwest edge of the precipitation shield. That may indeed occur again tonight, and if so, may heavily impact a portion of a few counties in southeast Missouri. The LPMM of the HREF has a narrow axis of 3-4" whereas the REFS has almost double those totals. If training occurs long enough, I would not rule out the higher-end potential of the REFS LPMM. Due to this threat for significant rainfall amounts and flash flood potential, a flash flood watch is now in effect beginning this afternoon through Friday night across southeast Missouri and a small part of southwest Illinois. The heavy rain threat overnight tonight should end around dawn with the stronger low-level moisture convergence shifting to the east/southeast more toward the lower Ohio Valley. Mostly dry conditions are then forecast through the remainder of the morning hours across the area. Attention will then look to the west again. Another MCV(s?) is likely to be moving across eastern Kansas by midday. The exact track/timing of this feature is not certain, nor is the environment ahead of it due to the morning showers and thunderstorms. The effective front may be to our south, though at least some sunshine should allow for instability to climb ahead of the approaching MCV. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the area, though there may be a bit more focus from central-southeast Missouri during the late afternoon/evening time frame. Similar to today, damaging winds should be the primary threat. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible as there will be little/no change in the environment so efficient warm rain processes are expected. Areas that get hit hardest tonight would be the main concern as soils may be very saturated and any additional (even brief) heavy rainfall could cause renewed hydrological issues. The low-level jet increases again Friday night, though it does not look as strong as tonight. Therefore, I think there will be another uptick in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms, but the overall threat for flash flooding likely will stay mostly confined to areas that are hardest hit tonight as alluded to in the paragraph above. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 (Saturday - Saturday Night) Uncertainty on Saturday increases, in part due to the 2-3 rounds of showers and thunderstorms anticipated before this time period. Deterministic guidance though does show a midlevel shortwave trough moving south/southwest almost beneath the amplifying mid/upper level ridge to the west. Showers and thunderstorms are again possible Saturday/Saturday night, mainly across southeast Missouri/southwest Illinois, which should be closer to the effective frontal boundary. If confidence increases in the threat for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, the existing flash flood watch may need to be extended in time. (Sunday - Next Thursday) Not a lot has changed over the past 24 hours, with a historic record- breaking mid/upper level ridge expected across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. Our area will be within deep northeasterly flow aloft, so dry weather is expected. The low-level thermal ridge is also forecast to stay well to our north, so 850-hPa temperatures are actually pretty close normal (+16 to +20C). Nighttime lows are forecast to be near seasonal averages, with daytime highs likely a bit above normal due to plenty of sunshine expected each day. Relative humidity (dewpoint) values also should tick down early next week, aided by continued deep northeasterly flow. This means heat index values should not be too much higher than the ambient air temperature, and the chances of heat advisory duration criteria (100+ for 4+ days) seem very small attm. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The main concern will be scattered showers and thunderstorms developing at various times through the upcoming period. However, confidence in these affecting any one TAF site is fairly low. This evening`s thunderstorms are likely to occur south of the St Louis metro, but may impact parts of central Missouri with JEF the most likely to be impacted. Otherwise we expect primarily mid level cloud decks well within the VFR range. Additional thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon area wide, but confidence remains low on where or when. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ072>075-084-085- 099. IL...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ILZ079. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gosselin LONG TERM...Gosselin AVIATION...Kimble
- Additional Information:
According to the NTSB Safety Alert SA-023, Pilots: Manage Risks to Ensure Safety: Good decision-making and risk management practices can help prevent accidents:
The Problem:
Although few pilots knowingly accept severe risks, accidents can also result when several risks of marginal severity are not identified or are ineffectively managed by the pilot and compound into a dangerous situation. Accidents also result when the pilot does not accurately perceive situations that involve high levels of risk.
Ineffective risk management or poor aeronautical decision-making can be associated with almost any type of fatal accident across all general aviation (GA) sectors.
What can pilots do?
- Develop good decision-making practices that will allow you to identify personal attitudes that are hazardous to safe flying, apply behavior modification techniques, recognize and cope with stress, and effectively use all resources. Understand the safety hazards associated with human fatigue and strive to eliminate fatigue contributors in your life.
- Understand that effective risk management takes practice. It is a decision-making process by which you can systematically identify hazards, assess the degree of risk, and determine the best course of action.
- Be honest with yourself and your passengers about your skill level and proficiency. Refuse to allow external pressures, such as the desire to save time or money or the fear of disappointing passengers, to influence you to attempt or continue a flight in conditions in which you are not comfortable.
- Be honest with yourself and the FAA about your medical condition. If you have a medical condition or are taking any medication, do not fly until your fitness for flight has been thoroughly evaluated.
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| Groundspeed for entire track |
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| Vertical rate for last portion of track |
