Friday, November 06, 2026

Cirrus SR22 G2, N313DG, fatal accident occurred on November 3, 2026, near Lee C. Fine Memorial Airport (AIZ/KAIZ), Kaiser/Lake Ozark, Missouri

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this writing will be corrected when/if the NTSB preliminary report is released.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N313DG

- History of Flight:
On November 3, 2026, at about 1412 local time, a Cirrus SR22 G2, N313DG, registered to 3DG Aviation LLC out of Louisville, Kentucky, was destroyed when it impacted wooded terrain near Lee C. Fine Memorial Airport (AIZ/KAIZ), Kaiser/Lake Ozark, Missouri. The airline transport pilot and one passenger were fatally injured. The personal flight was originating at the time and was presumably destined to Dwight D. Eisenhower National Airport (ICT/KICT), 
Wichita, Kansas.

According to the FAA, the airplane crashed in the Ozarks State Park during its initial climb and a post crash fire ensued.

A review of flight-tracking history shows that the airplane was frequently flying on short cross-country trips. On November 2, at 0628, the airplane departed Ellington Airport (LUG/KLUG) Lewisburg, Tennessee, on a flight to Clark Regional Airport (JVY/KJVY), Jeffersonville, Indiana. The following day, at 1101 (EST), the airplane departed KJVY with an intended destination of Dwight D. Eisenhower National Airport (ICT/KICT), Wichita, Kansas. The airplane was cruising at 6,000 ft when at 11:38 LT (CST), it turned north to avoid weather activity along the path of the flight. The pilot subsequently diverted to and landed at KAIZ at 1257 (CST).

Figure 1: Initial flight from KJVY on Google Earth with NEXRAD LVL II overlay at 1138 LT.

Figure 2: Diverting to KAIZ with NEXRAD overlay at 1200 LT.

The accident flight was not tracked on commercially available websites. However, Flightaware transmitted a single data point a few hundred feet from the departure end of runway 22, the data point was recorded at 1409:12, the airplane was at 1,400 ft, 65 knots groundspeed, without a known vertical rate. The FAA reported the accident time as 1412 LT.

Figure 3

- Pilot Information:
The pilot, aged 52, held an airline transport pilot certificate with an airplane multi engine land rating and commercial privileges for airplane single engine land aircraft. The pilot also held a flight instructor (expired 1999) certificate and a flight engineer certificate. The pilot's first class FAA medical was issued on September 2026 with a note that he must use corrective lens(es) to meet vision standards at all required distances.

The pilot held the following type ratings: Airbus A310, ATR-42, ATR-72, Boeing 737, Boeing 747-4, Boeing 757, Boeing 767, Beechcraft 1900 (SIC), Emb-145, and the IA-JET.

- Wreckage and Impact Information:
The airplane came to rest in a wooded area south of the airport and was consumed by post crash fire. Burnt remnants of both wings and tail were observed in the main wreckage. There was no apparent impact path leading to the main wreckage. 

The main wreckage came to rest next to three tall trees, which remained intact and undisturbed, However, the trees did sustained fire damage to the lower trunk.

Given the lack of an impact path, the lack of disturbed trees, and the fact that the main wreckage consisted of all four corners of the airplane, the impact appears consistent with a low altitude aerodynamic stall/spin.

- Airplane Information:
The accident aircraft, serial number 1592, was manufactured in 2005. It was a four-seat low-wing monoplane aircraft of composite construction. It was powered by a 310 HP Continental IO-550 engine driving a three-bladed Hartzell constant speed governor-regulated propeller. The airplane was IFR capable and did not have any known damage history.

According to section 3 of the Pilot Operating Handbook (POH), In-Flight Emergencies:

Engine Failure On Takeoff (Low Altitude) 

If the engine fails immediately after becoming airborne, abort on the runway if possible. If altitude precludes a runway stop but is not sufficient to restart the engine, lower the nose to maintain airspeed and establish a glide attitude. In most cases, the landing should be made straight ahead, turning only to avoid obstructions. After establishing a glide for landing, perform as many of the checklist items as time permits. 

• WARNING •

 If a turn back to the runway is elected, be very careful not to stall the airplane. 

  • 1. Best Glide or Landing Speed (as appropriate) .......... ESTABLISH 
  • 2. Mixture ..............................................................................CUTOFF 
  • 3. Fuel Selector............................................................................OFF 
  • 4. Ignition Switch..........................................................................OFF 
  • 5. Flaps ...................................................................... AS REQUIRED If time permits: 
  • 6. Power Lever ............................................................................ IDLE 
  • 7. Fuel Pump ...............................................................................OFF 
  • 8. Bat-Alt Master Switches...........................................................OFF 
  • 9. Seat Belts ..................................................... ENSURE SECURED
According to the same section:

Spins

The SR22 is not approved for spins, and has not been tested or certified for spin recovery characteristics. The only approved and demonstrated method of spin recovery is activation of the Cirrus Airframe Parachute System (See CAPS Deployment, this section). Because of this, if the aircraft “departs controlled flight,” the CAPS must be deployed. 

While the stall characteristics of the SR22 make accidental entry into a spin extremely unlikely, it is possible. Spin entry can be avoided by using good airmanship: coordinated use of controls in turns, proper airspeed control following the recommendations of this Handbook, and never abusing the flight controls with accelerated inputs when close to the stall (see Stalls, Section 4). If, at the stall, the controls are misapplied and abused accelerated inputs are made to the elevator, rudder and/or ailerons, an abrupt wing drop may be felt and a spiral or spin may be entered. In some cases it may be difficult to determine if the aircraft has entered a spiral or the beginning of a spin. 

• WARNING • 
In all cases, if the aircraft enters an unusual attitude from which recovery is not expected before ground impact, immediate deployment of the CAPS is required. 

The minimum demonstrated altitude loss for a CAPS deployment from a one-turn spin is 920 feet. Activation at higher altitudes provides enhanced safety margins for parachute recoveries. Do not waste time and altitude trying to recover from a spiral/spin before activating CAPS. 

Inadvertent Spin Entry 
  • 1. CAPS ................................................................................. Activate

According to section 4, "Normal Procedures:"

Stalls 

SR22 stall characteristics are conventional. Power-off stalls may be accompanied by a slight nose bobbing if full aft stick is held. Power-on stalls are marked by a high sink rate at full aft stick. Power-off stall speeds at maximum weight for both forward and aft C.G. positions are presented in Section 5 - Performance Data. 

When practicing stalls at altitude, as the airspeed is slowly reduced, you will notice a slight airframe buffet and hear the stall speed warning horn sound between 5 and 10 knots before the stall. Normally, the stall is marked by a gentle nose drop and the wings can easily be held level or in the bank with coordinated use of the ailerons and rudder. Upon stall warning in flight, recovery is accomplished by immediately by reducing back pressure to maintain safe airspeed, adding power if necessary and rolling wings level with coordinated use of the controls. 

• WARNING • 

Extreme care must be taken to avoid uncoordinated, accelerated or abused control inputs when close to the stall, especially when close to the ground.

According to section 10 of the Pilot Operating Handbook (POH):

"Cirrus Airframe Parachute System (CAPS) The Cirrus Airframe Parachute System (CAPS) is designed to lower the aircraft and its passengers to the ground in the event of a life-threatening emergency. CAPS deployment is likely to result in damage to the airframe and, possible injury to aircraft occupants, its use should not be taken lightly. Instead, possible CAPS activation scenarios should be well thought out and mentally practiced by every Cirrus pilot. Pilots who regularly conduct CAPS training and think about using CAPS will often have a higher probability of deploying CAPS when necessary. 

The following discussion is meant to guide your thinking about CAPS activation. Cirrus also recommends that pilots discuss CAPS deployment scenarios with instructors as well as fellow pilots through forums such as the Cirrus Owners and Pilots Association. In the event of a spin or loss of aircraft control, immediate CAPS activation is required. (See Section 3) In other situations, CAPS activation is at the informed discretion of the pilot in command. The following discussion is intended to be informative, not directive. It is the responsibility of you, the pilot, to determine when and how the CAPS will be used. It is important to understand, however, that numerous fatalities that have occurred in Cirrus aircraft accidents likely could have been avoided if pilots had made the timely decision to deploy CAPS. It is also important to note that CAPS has been activated by pilots at speeds in excess of 180 knots on multiple occasions with successful outcomes. While the best speed to activate CAPS is below 140 knots indicated airspeed, a timely activation is most important for loss of control situations."

Landing Required in Terrain not Permitting a Safe Landing
"If a forced landing on an unprepared surface is required CAPS activation is recommended unless the pilot in command concludes there is a high likelihood that a safe landing can be accomplished. If a condition requiring a forced landing occurs over rough or mountainous terrain, over water out of gliding distance to land, over widespread ground fog or at night, CAPS activation is strongly recommended. Numerous fatalities that have occurred in Cirrus aircraft accidents likely could have been avoided if pilots had made the timely decision to deploy CAPS. 

While attempting to glide to an airfield to perform a power off landing, the pilot must be continuously aware of altitude and ability to successfully perform the landing. Pilot must make the determination by 2000' AGL if the landing is assured or if CAPS will be required."

General Deployment Information Deployment Speed 

"The maximum speed at which deployment has been demonstrated is 140 KIAS. Deployment at higher speeds could subject the parachute and aircraft to excessive loads that could result in structural failure. Once a decision has been made to deploy the CAPS, make all reasonable efforts to slow to the minimum possible airspeed. However, if time and altitude are critical, and/or ground impact is imminent, the CAPS should be activated regardless of airspeed. Deployment Altitude No minimum altitude for deployment has been set. This is because the actual altitude loss during a particular deployment depends upon the airplane's airspeed, altitude and attitude at deployment as well as other environmental factors. In all cases, however, the chances of a successful deployment increase with altitude. In the event of a spin, immediate CAPS activation is mandatory regardless of altitude. In other situations, the pilot in command may elect to troubleshoot a mechanical problem or attempt to descend out of icing conditions if altitude and flight conditions permit. As a data point, altitude loss from level flight deployments has been demonstrated at less than 400 feet. Deployment at such a low altitude leaves little or no time for the aircraft to stabilize under the canopy or for the cabin to be secured. A low altitude deployment increases the risk of injury or death and should be avoided. If circumstances permit, it is advisable to activate the CAPS at or above 2,000 feet AGL. 

While CAPS activation above 2,000 feet is not necessarily safer than activation at 2,000 feet in terms of the altitude needed to deploy the parachute and slow the descent of the aircraft, there are other risks associated with delaying deployment. Distraction, deterioration in flight conditions, aircraft damage, pilot injury or incapacitation all could take place above 2,000 feet and prevent a timely deployment. 

At any altitude, once the CAPS is determined to be the only alternative available for saving the aircraft occupants, deploy the system without delay."

- Airport Information:
Lee C Fine Memorial Airport is a non-towered public airport located 3 miles southeast of Lake Ozark. The airport field elevation was 869 ft. The airport features a single asphalt/aggregate friction seal coat runway 4/22 which is 6497 ft long and 100 ft wide.

- Weather:
(1) Brief:

At 1356, the airport was reporting winds 180 at 12 knots, gusting 19 knots, 10 miles visibility, few clouds at 1,600 ft AGL, a scattered cloud layer at 2,100 ft AGL and 4,900 ft AGL, and an altimeter setting of 29.70 inches of mercury.

At 1456, the airport was reporting winds 190 at 12 knots, gusting 18 knots, 10 miles visibility, a broken cloud layer at 2,900 ft AGL and 3,700 ft AGL, an overcast ceiling at 4,400 ft AGL, and an altimeter setting of 29.69 inches of mercury.

Review of weather conditions at the time showed the presence of marginal VFR conditions, broken ceilings and very light turbulence in Lake Ozark with the addition of likely rain showers and isolated thunderstorms east of the accident site. The maximum surface windspeed was reported from 200° at 10 kt gusting to 21 knots.

Note that at the time of the accident, there was an active convective SIGMET and a G-AIRMET east of the accident site for thunderstorms, severe turbulence, icing, hail and possible lightning, but they were active with high altitude bases, and likely did not effect the area of the accident.

(3) Figures:

Figure 1: Observations

Figure 2: Ceiling/Vis GFA with SIGMET

Figure 3: Clouds GFA

Figure 4: Precipitation GFA

Figure 5: Thunderstorms GFA

Figure 6: Surface temperatures

Figure 7: Temperatures at 3,000 ft MSL

Figure 8: Surface winds

Figure 9: Winds at 1,000 ft MSL

Figure 10: Winds at 3,000 ft MSL

Figure 11: Turbulence GFA for <FL180

(3) METARs:

METAR KAIZ 031956Z AUTO 18012G19KT 10SM FEW016 SCT021 SCT049 A2970 RMK AO2 SLPNO FZRANO $

METAR KAIZ 032056Z AUTO 19012G18KT 10SM BKN029 BKN037 OVC044 A2969 RMK AO2 SLPNO 60001 57006 FZRANO $

(4) Area Forecast Discussion:

442
FXUS63 KSGF 031745
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1145 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 15-25 mph winds with gusts up to 35 mph will persist into
  this evening.

- Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for damaging winds and brief tornadoes
  along and east of Highway 65 today. Line of showers and
  thunderstorms will be out of the area around 6 PM.

- Drizzle may occur this afternoon/evening on the backside of
  the main line of showers and thunderstorms.

- Rain chances return Thursday (40-60%) with dry weather
  expected this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Rain has begun to move in over SE KS/SW MO early this morning.
There is still a tornado watch in effect until 3 AM for this area.
However, this convection has been underwhelming and so far hasn`t
reached its potential over our area. The lack of instability may
have been one of the factors that limited the severe potential.
There were moments over in NE OK that all the elements lined up
perfectly, and a few tornado warnings were issued. Models aren`t
handling the current set up well, but we can`t completely rule out a
quick spin-up as this line continues its way northeast. As far as
damaging winds, we haven`t seen winds more than 40-50 mph from this
activity. Overall, the widespread severe threat hasn`t materialized,
but we will see beneficial rainfall of around 1-2 inches across the
area.

Southeasterly winds have remained gusty near 35 mph and will remain
elevated through this evening. Wind direction will change throughout
the day with winds turning southwesterly by late morning and
northwesterly later this evening. This line of showers and
thunderstorms will continue to push east through the night and into
Tuesday. As the line continues to push east through the day, we`ll
still need to monitor for the threat of severe weather especially
this afternoon. If destabilization can occur this afternoon east of
Highway 65, damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and a brief, spin-up
tornado or two are possible. There is a Marginal risk (1/5) for
severe weather over that area to account for this possibility. The
eastern Ozarks will have a similar environment to what we`ve seen
tonight with wind shear overachieving and instability lacking. There
will also be some dry air in the mid-levels that starts to creep
into the area from west to east following this line. Severe weather
may also be limited if cloud cover ahead of the line limits
destabilization later this afternoon. The chance for severe weather
is more conditional today.

Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy today with highs reaching
the upper 60s to lower 70s. There is a chance for drizzle this
afternoon/evening on the backside of the main line of showers
and thunderstorms. There will be some leftover upward omega
available as long as the moisture is there. If drizzle does
occur, it may lower visibilities during the evening commute if
it becomes heavy enough. Northwesterly winds will continue to
diminish overnight with clouds beginning to thin out. Lows
tonight will be a bit cooler in the mid 40s as that cold air
advection and drier air starts to filter in.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

The low pressure system that moves through at the beginning of the
week will drop our temperatures, but only by about 10 degrees.
Though, it will bring them closer to average for this time of year
with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s for the rest of the week.
Cloud cover starts to dissipate on Wednesday and skies remain partly
cloudy to mostly sunny into the weekend. Rain chances have returned
back into the forecast this Thursday as another low pressure system
moves through. Model guidance has struggled with these rain chances,
but we`ll take the rain if we can get it. Rain chances are 40-60%
through the day Thursday with the higher chances occurring over the
western CWA. Surface high pressure moves back in for the weekend.
Dry weather is expected and patchy fog may occur if lows can dip
into the 30s this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A band of showers is currently exiting east of the TAF sites.
Behind the showers, there is a narrow dry slot producing mostly
clear skies over SGF and BBG. West of this slot, MVFR cigs are
moving into JLN. This cloud deck will then move into SGF and
BBG by 20-00Z. Some drizzle or light showers may accompany
these conditions, which may drop visibilities at times, but
otherwise, cigs are expected to be MVFR with a 30-40% chance of
IFR cigs at times. Once in place, these cigs are expected to
hold through much of the 18Z TAF period, slightly clearing
towards the end.

Winds within the dry/clear slow will be slightly more gusty
with gusts up to 25-35 kts. Once cloud cover increased, winds
should diminish and turn westerly at 10-15 kts with gusts up to
20-25 kts at times.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Price

Robinson R44 Raven II, N272JW, fatal accident occurred on November 4, 2026, near Biscayne Bay, Florida

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this writing will be corrected when/if the NTSB preliminary report is released.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N272JW

- History of Flight:
On November 4, 2026, at about 1117 local time, a Robinson R44 Raven II helicopter, N272JW, registered to Global Aerials Inc and doing business as Global Air Group Inc, sustained substantial damage when it was involved in an accident near Biscayne Bay, Florida. The commercial pilot was fatally injured, and two passengers suffered minor injuries. The aerial photography flight originated from North Perry Airport (HWO/KHWO), 
Hollywood, Florida, at 1112.

The purpose of the flight was to take photos of the speed boat event called Poker Run. The FAA reported that the helicopter crashed under unknown circumstances in the water.

According to preliminary ADS-B data, the helicopter departed and proceeded south to an altitude of 200 ft. At about 1059, the helicopter climbed to 100 ft over the Rickenbacker Causeway and proceeded to circle south of the bridge at low altitude. At 1109, the helicopter flew south on a 204° heading. The helicopter continued flying south with different variations in groundspeeds (sometimes averaging 100 knots, or as low as 20 knots while doing slight turns/heading changes, likely as it was taking photographs of the event). At 1115:45, the helicopter initiated a right turn and began tracking north. At 1116:58, the helicopter turned right, which was followed by a left turn 7 seconds later. At 1117:29, the helicopter was at 77 knots (GS) when it initiated a final right turn. The last ADS-B data point was recorded at 1117:35, the helicopter was reporting 56 knots (GS) and -480 feet per minute (fpm) rate. Note that, for the majority of the flight, the helicopter was flying at low altitudes so the track was consistently showing an altitude 0 ft.

Nearby boaters reported hearing a mayday call and rushed to the scene where they found the helicopter inverted on the surface.

Figure 1: ADS-B exchange track

Figure 2: ADS-B exchange track ran through Google Earth

Figure 3: Activity near Rickenbacker Causeway

Figure 4: End of track

Figure: ADS-B exchange track ran through Google Earth with NEXRAD LVL II imagery overlay from 114:51 LT, note that the helicopter's track was extended to make it easier to view

- Pilot Information:
The pilot, aged 63, held a commercial pilot certificate with a rotorcraft/helicopter rating and a private certificate with an airplane single engine land rating. His second class FAA medical was issued on May 2026.

- Aircraft Information:
The accident aircraft, serial number 13769, was a four-seat, single main rotor, single-engine helicopter. It was constructed primarily of metal, and manufactured in 2015. The primary structure of the fuselage was welded steel tubing and riveted aluminum sheet. The tailcone was a monocoque structure in which aluminum skins carried most of the primary loads. The helicopter was powered by a 260-horsepower Lycoming IO-540-AE1A5 engine.

According to section 2 of the Pilot Operating Handbook (POH):

WEIGHT LIMITS 

Maximum weight for intentional water operations 2400 lb (1091 kg)

FLIGHT AND MANEUVER LIMITATIONS 

Maximum altitude decrease with floats inflated is 4000 feet. CAUTION Altitude loss greater than 4000 feet may cause floats to lose shape and rigidity due to atmospheric pressure increase. Do not inflate floats above 4000 feet AGL. 

Water landings for any reason other than an actual emergency are prohibited at weights above 2400 lb (1091 kg). 

PLACARDS 

Near inflation lever: Vne WITH FLOATS INFLATED: 80 KIAS

- Wreckage and Impact Information:
The helicopter came to rest inverted in the water and the floats were inflated.

- Weather:
(1) Brief:

At 1053, the nearest airport was reporting winds 070 at 8 knots, 6 miles visibility, rain and mist, few clouds at 1,500 ft AGL, a broken Cumulonimbus cloud at 2,700 ft AGL, a broken ceiling at 6,000 AGL ft, an overcast ceiling at 15,000 ft AGL, temperature 25 °C, dewpoint 24 °C, and an altimeter setting of 29.98 inches of mercury. The cumulonimbus cloud was moving from the northeast towards the west.

At 1136, the nearest airport was reporting winds 080 at 8 knots, 10 miles visibility, rain, mist and a thunderstorm, few clouds at 2,700 ft AGL, a broken Cumulonimbus cloud at 2,700 ft AGL, a broken ceiling at 7,000 AGL ft, an overcast ceiling at 13,000 ft AGL, temperature 25 °C, dewpoint 23 °C, and an altimeter setting of 29.96 inches of mercury. Occasional lightning was reported in the clouds in the southeast, and a thunderstorm was moving from the southeast towards the west.

At 1055, a convective SIGMET for thunderstorms with tops of 44,000 ft was active for south Florida, with reports of severe turbulence, icing, hail, and possible lightning.

A review of the National Reflectivity Mosaic showed the presence echoes ranging from 20 to 40 dBZ, with some small areas showing up to 45-60 dBZ. According to the NWS, echos ranging from 40 to 50 dBZ depicts moderate precipitation, and from 50 to 65 dBZ depicts heavy precipitation or some hail.

Review of the Graphical Area Forecast imagery showed the presence of broken to overcast ceilings, isolated thunderstorms, and likely rainshowers.

Note that, since the helicopter was flying at low altitude over the surface of the water, it is unknown whether it would have encountered any of the mentioned weather conditions.

(2) Figures:

Figure 1: National Reflectivity Mosaic at 1115 LT

Figure 2: National Reflectivity Mosaic at 1115 LT

Figure 3: Observations at the time

Figure 4: SIGMET active at the time

Figure 5: Precipitation GFA

Figure 6: Thunderstorms GFA

Figure 7: Clouds GFA

(1) METARs:

METAR KMIA 041553Z COR 07008KT 6SM RA BR FEW015 BKN027CB BKN060 OVC150 25/24 A2998 RMK AO2 TSE34 SLP151 CB NE MOV W P0001 T02500239 $

METAR KMIA 041636Z 08008KT 10SM -TSRA BKN027CB BKN070 BKN130 25/23 A2996 RMK AO2 TSE30B32 OCNL LTGICCG SE TS SE MOV W P0006 T02500233 $

(2) Area Forecast Discussion:

040
FXUS62 KMFL 041130
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
630 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 630 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

  - Additional rainfall could result in localized flooding across
    portions of the area that have seen repeated rounds of heavy
    rainfall over the last several days. Highest chances during
    the morning hours over the Atlantic coast.

  - Minor coastal flooding expected during times of high tide.

  - Dangerous beach conditions are expected across the Atlantic
    coast through today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Overnight period has remained busy radar-wise with persisting
training of cells around northern Broward county. Flash Flood
warnings/Flood Advisories have been necessary for those areas, with
some potential for additional showers through sunrise.

Ensembles and global models show developing high pressure across the
SE U.S. coast slowly moving closer to the area. This will decrease
pressure gradients across Soflo and allow for coastal winds to
gradually decrease starting today. Drier air is also expected to
continue to filter into the region, which will also help in the
downward trend of active weather. In terms of POPs, latest NBM keeps
highest values through the mid morning hours, mainly over the
immediate Atlantic coastal areas of SoFlo where up to 80% for that
time period. WPC is also keeping a Marginal Risk for Excesssive
Rainfall (level 1 of 4), mainly for the morning hours.

The high pressure will continue to inch closer to the area on
Thursday, with a more pronounced mid-lvl layer of drier air
establishing across SoFlo. This will result in POPs dropping into
single digits by the afternoon hours, and widespread light to
moderate NE flow. Meanwhile, a sfc dry front will begin moving
across the state, with reinforcing high pressure in its wake.

Also, coastal hazards continue as high astronomical tides combine
with persistent onshore winds to keep threat of coastal flooding in
place today.

Afternoon temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 80s each day,
with slightly warmer values on Thursday with more hours of
sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Long range models depict reinforcing high pressure and drier
conditions prevailing across the area during the weekend in the wake
of a dry FROPA. Mainly single-digit POPs are expected each day
through Sunday.

For early next week, models depict a potential mid-lvl trough moving
across the area and bringing increasing chances of showers for the
late Monday-Tuesday timeframe. But even so, max POPs seem to remain
in the 20-30% range.

The latest trend in guidance is also to bring a more pronounced
temperature response as overall northerly flow develops in the
wake of the FROPA. Afternoon highs should remain in the upper 70s
to low 80s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Winds will remain generally NE in the 10-12kt range through around
00Z, then L/V tonight. Some brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vis periods are
still possible this morning over the Atlantic terminals with
coastal showers and thunderstorms. Mainly VFR conditions should
prevail later in the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Marine conditions will continue to gradually improve across the
Atlantic waters as winds subside, and a more gentle NE flow
develops. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue across all Atlantic waters, with highest chances during
the morning hours, while mainly isolated showers prevail over the
Gulf waters today. Significantly drier conditions will prevail
during the weekend in the wake of a dry frontal passage across the
region.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 315 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

The onshore flow will keep a High Risk for rip currents across
Atlantic beaches for one more day, then conditions begin improving
tonight. Higher than usual tides will also continue to keep
elevated water levels near the coast today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            84  75  86  74 /  60  20  20   0
West Kendall     85  74  86  73 /  50  20  20   0
Opa-Locka        85  74  86  73 /  60  20  10   0
Homestead        85  75  86  73 /  60  20  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  83  74  84  74 /  70  10  10   0
N Ft Lauderdale  84  74  85  74 /  70  10  10   0
Pembroke Pines   85  74  87  73 /  70  20  10   0
West Palm Beach  84  74  85  73 /  40  10   0   0
Boca Raton       83  75  84  74 /  60  10  10   0
Naples           85  72  86  71 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168.

     High Rip Current Risk until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Rizzuto

- Additional Information:
According to the Robinson Safety Notice SN-19:

"FLYING LOW OVER WATER IS VERY HAZARDOUS

Many helicopter accidents have occurred while maneuvering low over water. Many pilots do not realize their loss of depth perception when flying over water. Flying over calm glassy water is particularly dangerous, but even choppy water, with its constantly varying surface, interferes with normal depth perception and may cause a pilot to misjudge his height above the water.

MAINTAIN 500 FEET AGL WHENEVER POSSIBLE AND AVOID MANEUVERS OVER WATER BELOW 200 FEET AGL."

Thursday, November 05, 2026

Beechcraft M35 Bonanza, N9862R, accident occurred on November 4, 2026, near New Smyrna Beach, Florida

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this writing will be corrected when/if the NTSB preliminary report is released.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N9862R

- History of Flight:
On November 3, 2026, at about 1511 local time, a Beechcraft M35 Bonanza, N9862R, registered to ISR Aviation LLC, was destroyed when it impacted terrain in a wooded area near New Smyrna Beach, Florida. The sole pilot onboard was seriously injured. The personal flight originated from Merritt Island Airport (COI/KCOI), 
Merritt Island, Florida, and was destined to New Smyrna Beach (EVB/KEVB), New Smyrna Beach, Florida, at 1351.

According to preliminary Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) data, the airplane departed KCOI and proceeded north to an inflight cruising altitude of 4,700 ft. About 14 minutes into the flight, the airplane initiated a descent from that altitude as it was nearing KEVB. At 1509:59, the airplane was at 1,100 ft, 105 knots groundspeed, when it turned right towards the east. At 1511:15, the airplane was at 450 ft, 70 knots groundspeed, when it turned left towards a wooded area. At 1511:47, the last ADS-B data point was recorded about 2 miles west of KEVB, the airplane was at 50 ft, 62 knots groundspeed, and descending 700 feet per minute (fpm).

Figure 1: ADS-B exchange track ran through Google Earth

Figure 2: ADS-B exchange raw data

The airplane came to rest upright in a wooded area west of KEVB. The cockpit area was penetrated by a tree and left the cabin seats exposed. There was no post crash fire.

The accident airplane, serial number D-6409, was powered by a Continental IO-470 reciprocating engine.

At 1447, KEVB was reporting winds 120 at 12 knots, 10 miles visibility, a scattered ceiling at 4,800 ft AGL, temperature 28 °C, dewpoint 22 °C, and an altimeter setting of 29.94 inches of mercury.

- Weather:

METAR KDAB 041953Z 10008KT 10SM FEW033 SCT050 BKN250 27/21 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP140 T02670206 $

METAR KDAB 042053Z VRB05KT 10SM FEW033 FEW050 BKN200 26/21 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP138 T02610206 56015 $

Cessna 414A Chancellor, N789PT, incident occurred on November 4, 2026, at Phoenix-Sky Harbor International Airport (PHX/KPHX), Phoenix, Arizona

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this writing will be corrected when/if the NTSB preliminary report is released.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N789PT

- History of Flight:
On November 4, 2026, at about 1859 local time, a Cessna 414A Chancellor, N789PT, registered to Valiair Limited Company out of Casper, Wyoming, and being operated by a cooperate Mexican operator, sustained unknown damage when it landed gear up on runway 25L at Phoenix-Sky Harbor International Airport (PHX/KPHX), Phoenix, Arizona. The pilot and four passengers were not injured. The flight originated from Tucson International Airport (TUS/KTUS), 
Tucson, Arizona, at 1823 LT.

- Weather:

METAR KPHX 050051Z 26007KT 10SM FEW120 23/06 A2986 RMK AO2 SLP101 T02280061 $

METAR KPHX 050151Z 25004KT 10SM CLR 22/09 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP109 T02170094 $

METAR KPHX 050230Z 24003KT 10SM CLR 20/13 A2988 RMK AO2 T02000128 $

Cessna 180B Skywagon, N3389D, accident occurred on November 3, 2026, at Factory Butte Coal Mine Airstrip, Green River, Utah

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this writing will be corrected when/if the NTSB preliminary report is released.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N3389D

- History of Flight:
On November 3, 2026, at about 1505 local time, a privately-registered Cessna 180B Skywagon, N3389D, sustained substantial damage when it nosed over on landing at the Factory Butte Coal Mine back country airstrip in Green River, Utah. The pilot and passenger suffered minor injuries.

Daher TBM700N (TBM960), N1J, incident occurred on November 4, 2026, at Montgomery-Gibbs Executive Airport (MYF/KMYF), San Diego, California

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this writing will be corrected when/if the NTSB preliminary report is released.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N1J

- History of Flight:
On November 4, 2026, at about 0607 local time, a Daher TBM700N (TBM960), N1J, registered to 1596 Inc Trustee, sustained unknown damage when its left wing struck a hangar as it was taxiing for departure at KMYF. The airplane continued taxiing and departed uneventfully on a flight to James Armstrong Richardson International Airport (YWG/CYWG), 
Winnipeg, Canada. There were no injuries.

Just Highlander, N982LT, incident occurred on November 3, 2026, in Nashville, Tennessee

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this writing will be corrected when/if the NTSB preliminary report is released.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N982LT

- History of Flight:
On November 3, 2026, at about 1030 local time, a privately-registered Just Highlander, N982LT, sustained unknown damage when it bounced on landing and veered off the runway causing the right main gear to snap. The pilot and passenger were not injured.