Cessna 340, N123AM, accident occurred on October 29, 2026, near Lubbock Preston Smith International Airport (LBB/KLBB), Lubbock, Texas

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this writing will be corrected when/if the NTSB preliminary report is released.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N123AM

- History of Flight:
On October 29, 2026, at about 1011 local, a Cessna 340, N123AM, registered to C.W. Myers Holdings LLC out of Anthony, New Mexico, sustained substantial damage when it struck a powerline while on approach to land on runway 26 at Lubbock Preston Smith International Airport (LBB/KLBB), Lubbock, Texas. The sole pilot onboard was not injured. The personal flight originated from Dona Ana County International Jetport Airport (DNA/KDNA), Santa Teresa, New Mexico, at 0725.

The FAA reported that the clipped a power line on approach and sustained substantial damage. The event was rated as an accident.

According to automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) data, the airplane departed KDNA and entered a climb to an inflight cruising altitude of 14,900 ft. At about 0930, the airplane a descent from cruise altitude. At 1003, the airplane was descending through 6,750 ft south of the airport and preparing for the ILS runway 26 approach. At 1008:14, the airplane was at 5,500 ft when it crossed TXXAS (4,800 ft). The airplane then turned left and was on a 600 feet per minute (fpm) rate of descent. At 1010:48, the airplane was at descending 800 fpm through 4,000 ft when it crossed TECH (4,500 ft). At 1011:57, the airplane descended as low as 3,000 ft and struck a powerline short of the runway threshold. Following this, the airplane entered a 1000 fpm climb and headed north. At 1036, the airplane landed at Hale County Airport (KPVW), Plainview, Texas.

Lubbock Preston Smith International Airport is a controlled public airport located 4 miles north of Lubbock, Texas. The airport field elevation was 3282.4 ft. The airport features three runways, runway 17R/35L (11500 x 150 ft), runway 8/26 (8003 x 150 ft), and runway 17L/35R (2891 x 74 ft). 

Runway 26 was equipped with a 1,400 foot medium intensity approach lighting system with runway alignment indicator lights. The runway also featured a touchdown point with no lights.

Runway 26 is equipped with an ILS approach, with an inbound course of 264 degrees magnetic. The charted landing minimums for Categories A through E are a decision altitude of 3,456 feet MSL (200 feet HAT) and a runway visual range of 2,400 feet, approximately ½ mile.

If the glideslope is unusable, the localizer-only minimum descent altitude is 3,560 feet MSL (304 feet HAT). Categories A and B require an RVR of 2,400 feet, while Categories C, D, and E require an RVR of 4,000 feet. Circling minimums range from 3,720 feet MSL (Category A, 1 mile) to 4,100 feet MSL (Category E, 3 miles). Category C requires 1½ miles and Category D requires 2 miles. If the approach lighting system is inoperative, Category A ILS visibility increases to an RVR (Runway Visual Range) of 4,000 feet, while Category E localizer-only visibility increases to 1¼ miles.

During an ILS approach, the localizer provides lateral guidance along the final approach course, while the glideslope provides vertical guidance as the aircraft descends toward the runway.

Given the weather at the time (visibility lower than 1/2 mile) and the Category restrictions, the pilot was likely attempting the ILS runway 26 approach below minimums and descended prematurely and struck the powerline located 1.6 miles from the runway threshold.

Figure 1: Approach into KLBB

Figure 2: Close-up of final seconds of approach and the subsequent missed approach

Figure 3: Estimated location of powerline strike and runway 26 threshold

Figure 4: Powerline location and ADS-B data ran through Google Earth with "extend to ground" option disabled, the data suggests the airplane either flew into or below the powerlines.

Figure 5: ILS/LOC RWY 26

Figure 6: ADS-B exchange data ran through Flysto showing the initial portion of the approach

Figure 7: Airplane crossing TECH (4,500 ft) at 4,000 ft

Figure 8: Powerline strike and missed approach

The accident airplane, serial number 340-0245, was manufactured in 1973. According to the Pilot Operating Handbook (POH): 

"THIS AIRPLANE IS APPROVED FOR DAY-NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS. IT IS APPROVED FOR DAY-NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS AND FLIGHTS INTO ICING CONDITIONS IF THE PROPER OPTIONAL EQUIPMENT IS INSTALLED AND OPERATIONAL."

- Weather Review:

(1) Brief:

At 1053, the airport was reporting winds 190 at 4 knots, visibility 0.0625 mile, fog, runway 17R visibility ranging from 1200 ft to 1400 ft, a vertical visibility of 200 ft AGL, temperature 15 °C, dewpoint 15 °C, and an altimeter setting of 30.19 inches of mercury. The surface visibility was reported to be 0.125.

At 1118, the airport was reporting winds 200 at 4 knots, visibility 0.0625 mile, fog, runway 17R visibility ranging from 1400 ft to 3500 ft, a broken cloud layer at 0 ft AGL and 22,000 ft AGL, temperature 16 °C, dewpoint 16 °C, and an altimeter setting of 30.19 inches of mercury. The surface visibility was reported to be 0.25.

The local area forecast discussion, issued at 0606 local time, was reporting fog across the entire area/region with high rainfall chances in the afternoon.

At 0943, a Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) was issued for KLBB and was reporting a 0.25 mile visibility, fog, and a broken cloud layer 200 ft.

At 0941, a G-AIRMET for marginal and low IFR was issued for the area (low ceilings below 1,000 ft AGL and a 3 statute miles visibility). A review of the cloud Graphical Area Forecast (GFA) coverage showed the presence of broken and overcast ceilings around KLBB.

A Special Weather Advisory (CWA) was issued by Albuquerque Center (ZAB) starting from 1013 to 1105 in the region which did include Lubbock. The advisory was about IFR and occasional Low IFR (LIFR) conditions with ceilings at or below 400 ft and a visibility at or below 1 statue mile.

The NEXRAD LVL II reflectivity images were overlayed with the flight track. The images show that the airplane was flying in a band of echoes ranging from 0 dBZ to 15 dBZ while on approach to KLBB.

(2) Figures:

Figure 1: National Reflectivity Mosaic at 1015 LT

Figure 2: Close-up to KLBB

Figure 3: Observation GFA at KLBB

Figure 4: Ceiling/Vis GFA with G-AIRMET and CWR

Figure 5: Cloud GFA for KLBB and surrounding area

Figure 6: Track overlayed with NEXRAD LVL-II data from 1009:59

Figure 6: Track overlayed with NEXRAD LVL-II data from 1009:59

Figure 6: Track overlayed with NEXRAD LVL-II data from 1009:59

Figure 9: GOES-19 C2 overlayed with ADS-B exchange track

(3) METARs:

METAR KLBB 291453Z 19004KT 1/16SM R17R/1200V1400FT FG VV002 15/15 A3019 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 SLP193 T01500150 53015

METAR KLBB 291518Z 20004KT 1/16SM R17R/1400V3500FT FG BKN000 BKN220 16/16 A3019 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 FG BKN000 T01560156

METAR KLBB 291541Z 18005KT 1 1/2SM BCFG BR SCT001 BKN250 16/16 A3019 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 2 VIS W-NW 1/2 T01610161

(4) Area Forecast Discussion:

235
FXUS64 KLUB 291106
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
606 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 604 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

 - Fog is expected across much of the area Thursday morning.

 - High chances of rainfall exist from Thursday afternoon through
   Friday evening for the entire region with locally heavy
   rainfall possible. A Flood Watch is in effect from Thursday
   afternoon through Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Another quiet yet moist night is expected ahead of the
afternoon/evening rain event. Fog is expected again at least on the
Caprock tonight through mid morning as surface dew points remain
near 60/61 with temps in the mid 60s. Both LBB and PVW have dropped
to 5 SM as of 03Z and will likely drop further through the early
morning hours.

Moisture from Tropical Depression Vance is beginning to make its way
northward from the eastern Pacific. This rich moisture will move
over the region just as an upper shortwave trough develops and also
moves over the region. PWATs are still progged to increase to 1.5
inches or greater over the FA. The combination of rich moisture and
lift will be more than enough for widespread rain shower
development, with many showers producing heavy rainfall. Current QPF
estimates are widespread 1.5-2 inches. As locally higher amounts are
very possible and overall rainfall rates are expected to be on the
heavy side, an area wide Flood Watch has been issued. NBM guidance
has highs in the low to upper 70s today, but this seems to be a bit
optimistic. Though rain isn`t expected to begin until at least the
afternoon, cloud cover will be present from the morning onward and
should help to keep temps on the cool side.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

The upper shortwave will be slow to move out of the region and will
allow rain showers to persist through much of Friday as well, though
lighter amounts and rainfall rates are expected by this point. Upper
flow will become more southwesterly by the weekend as upper ridging
builds slightly. Another upper disturbance looks possible early next
week. An upper low will move into the coast of southern California
by late Sunday and will phase with an upper trough moving over the
Pacific Northwest. While some rainfall does look possible with this
next system, there is still a potential for dry-slotting. A cold
front looks to follow behind this system as it moves past the FA by
late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Fog continues at KPVW, however visibilities remain VFR. VFR
conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through the
afternoon. Rain showers will fill in later this afternoon and
continue overnight through Friday. Not expecting much except long
periods of light to maybe moderate rainfall that could lead to
flooding. Later tonight, IFR ceilings are expected to fill in for
all three TAF sites.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday evening
for TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...10

Learjet 60, N722BD, fatal accident occurred on November 1, 2026, in Lake Worth Beach, Florida.

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this writing will be corrected when/if the NTSB preliminary report is released.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N722BD

- History of Flight:
On November 1, 2026, at about 1249 local time, a Learjet 60, N722BD, was destroyed when it impacted terrain in a near vertical attitude following departure from controlled flight in Lake Worth Beach, Florida. The two pilots and seven passengers were fatally injured. The airplane was registered to LR60271 LLC out of Wilmington, Delaware, and was being operated on a flight from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (AUS/KAUS), Austin, Texas, with an intended destination of North Eleuthera International Airport (ELH/MYEH), North Eleuthera, Bahamas. Instrument meteorological conditions prevailed at the time.

According to preliminary Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B) data, at 0817, the airplane departed runway 36R at KAUS and proceeded to FL450. The flight appears to be uneventful. At about 1221, the jet was on a 134° track and approaching South Florida when the pilot asked the Miami Air Route Traffic Control Center (ZMA CTR) for clearance towards Freeport. The controller cleared the jet to turn to Freeport, but added "looks pretty bad, there is a moderate to extreme precipitation 11 o'clock and 25 miles, 100 miles in diameter." The pilot responded: "Roger, we'll look at it; 2BD."

Figure 1: ADS-B exchange track ran through Flysto

At 1236:25, the controller asked the airplane to initiate a descent from FL410 to FL350. Around the same time, American 2334 was turning towards HILTI, but asked for a slight left deviation for "the weather up ahead." The Learjet was subsequently approved to deviate, "N722BD, deviations left or right of course are approved, Freeport when able." The crew responded "Freeport when able, going left, 2BD." At about 1245, the pilot reported moderate turbulence at plus or minus 600 ft. The controller asked the pilot about outside temperature and the pilot responded that it was -47 °C and that they were managing the ice with moderate turbulence. The pilot also asked the controller to let them know if he has "any better rides." About 2 minutes later, the controller told the jet that "the ride" should improve in his airspace, but they were far outside (of the airspace) and should expect better rides ahead. The pilot responded: "Roger, now we are picking up precipitation, we need to climb to FL370 if able." The controller approved the crew to climb and maintain FL370, but said they have no further rights than their present heading for traffic. The data shows that, at around 1247:41, the airplane flew into a red echo (a heavy precipitation echo) as they were starting their climb to FL370. At 1248:17, the jet had climbed to 35,450 ft, but was now reporting a negative vertical rate of climb that continued to increase until the end of the track (as in the negative number going up). When this started, the pilot sent a mayday message and stated that they were descending 10,000 feet per minute (fpm). The controller said roger, but was interrupted by the pilot saying "Declaring an emergency, 722B, we are in an overspeed condition descending twenty thousand feet per minute." The controller responded "N722BD, roger, altitude at your discretion. Let me know what you need." A few seconds later, the pilot stated that "we're going to crash into the ground, 722BD." The controller responded "N2BD, I'm here with you. Talk to me." The pilot then said: "We are descending 22,000 feet and we are banking 60 degrees." At this point, the airplane was at 26,500 ft, 500 knots groundspeed, and descending -22600 feet per minute (fpm). A few seconds later, the pilot could be heard screaming "Look outside, Jack! Look outside!" and "Holy fuck we're out of 10..." At 1249:21, the airplane was at 10,000 ft, 306 knots groundspeed, and descending 32640 feet per minute (fpm). The last ADS-B data point was recorded at 1249:32, the jet was at 8750 ft, 238 knots groundspeed, and -32640 fpm rate.

Figure 2: ADS-B exchange track from FL410 to FL350

Figure 3: End of track

Figure 4: Descent from FL410 to FL350

Figure 5: End of track

Figure 6: Groundspeed Values towards end of track

Figure 7: Vertical Speed towards end of track

The jet impacted a roadside and exploded on impact.

- Pilot Information:
Unknown.

- Airplane Information:
The accident airplane, serial number 60-271, was manufactured in 2004. It was a medium-sized, low-wing jet powered by two Pratt & Whitney Canada PW305A high-bypass turbofan engines.

According to an old sale listing, the airplane was equipped for IFR flight and had an 8 passenger interior (two pilots, eight passengers).

The sale listing mentioned the following avionics:

"EFIS/MFD: Two Collins EFD-871 and Two Collins MFD-871 AUTOPILOT: Dual Collins FCC-850A AHRS: Dual Collins AHS-85 ADC: Dual Collins ADS-850 COMM: Dual Collins VHF-422A NAV: Dual Collins VIR-432 FMS/GPS: Dual Universal UNS-1E DME: Dual Collins DME-442 ADF: Collins ADF-462 TPDR: Dual Garmin GTX-3000 (ADS-B Out) EGPWS: Honeywell Mark V TCAS: Collins TTR-920 w/ TCAS II HF: BendixKing KHF-950 w/ SELCAL CVR: Universal CVR-30 RADAR ALT: Collins ALT-55B RADAR: Collins WXR-840 ELT: Artex 406 MHz COMPLIANCE: RVSM, ADS-B In/Out."

- Wreckage and Impact Information:
The jet collided with terrain in a near vertical nose down attitude at the estimated cords of 26.632954,-80.113010. The jet exploded on impact and debris was scattered over a trailer park. The impact crater appears to be ~8 ft down. The wreckage was highly fragmented. The horizontal stabilizer appears to have departed the airframe prior to impact.

Figure 8: Prior to impact

Figure 9: Impact point, note that the horizontal stabilizer appears to be missing

Figure 10: Last ADS-B data point rendered on Google Earth with wreckage impact and direction

Figure 11: Drone Footage (looking north) showing impact crater and spread wreckage to the west. Note the parked white vehicle was struck by debris.

- Weather:
(1) Brief:

At 1253, the nearest airport, President Donald J Trump International Airport (KDJT), was reporting winds 080 at 16 knots, gusting 28 knots, 10 miles visibility, light rain, a scattered cloud layer at 2,600 ft AGL and 5,000 ft AGL, an overcast ceiling at 6,000 ft AGL, temperature 26 °C, dewpoint 23 °C, and an altimeter setting of 30.06 inches of mercury. The peak wind was reported at 1230 from 070 at 33 knots.

At 1255, KLNA was reporting winds 090 at 12 knots, gusting 19 knots, 7 miles visibility, a thunderstorm in the vicinity with distant lightning in all quadrants, an overcast ceiling at 2,100 ft AGL, temperature 27 °C, dewpoint 22 °C, and an altimeter setting of 30.07 inches of mercury.

At 1255, F45 was reporting winds 090 at 8 knots, 5 miles visibility, a thunderstorm in the vicinity with distant lightning in all quadrants, light rain and mist, few clouds at 300 ft AGL, an overcast ceiling at 2,700 ft AGL, temperature 25 °C, dewpoint 23 °C, and an altimeter setting of 30.08 inches of mercury.

According to the local Area Forecast Discussion, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms were expected through Monday with widespread rainfall, and a Flood Watch was issued for the Lake Okeechobee region. MVFR/IFR conditions were expected, with easternly winds at 10 to 15 knots gusting from 20 up to 25 knots.

A review of the National Reflectivity Mosaic showed the presence echoes that were up to 65 dbZ. According to the NWS, echos ranging from 40 to 50 dBZ depicts moderate precipitation, from 50 to 65 dBZ depicts heavy precipitation or some hail, and anything over 65 dBZ depicts extremely heavy precipitation including water-coated hail. Running the NEXRAD image with the flight-track on Google Earth suggests the jet did fly into a heavy precipitation echo before the accident.

A stationary Convective SIGMET for severe turbulence, icing, hail, and possible lightning with tops above FL450 was active for south Florida starting from 1155 and ended at 1255 LT.

At 1245, the accident airplane issued the following PIREP: "DJT UA /OV PBI270025/TM 1745/FL350/TP LJ60/TA M46/IC LGT CLR" (FL350, light clear icing, temperature -46C, medium wake turbulence.

Review of the Graphical Area Forecast data showed the presence of light to moderate icing and turbulence in the region.

(2) Figures:

All the figures are from 1245 LT unless mentioned otherwise.

Figure 1: National Reflectivity Mosaic at 1245 LT

Figure 2: National Reflectivity Mosaic at 1245 LT (closer to accident area)

Figure 3: NEXRAD LEVEL-II Image at 1245:48 LT

Figure 4: NEXRAD with flight-track

Figure 5: NEXRAD image at the end of track

Figure 6: SIGMET active at the time

Figure 7: Cig/Vis

Figure 8: Clouds GFA

Figure 9: Precipitation GFA

Figure 10: Thunderstorms GFA

Figure 11: Temperatures at FL420

Figure 12: Temperatures at FL360

Figure 13: Winds at FL360

Figure 14: Turbulence GFA

Figure 15: PIREP issued by the N722BD about 4 minutes before crash

Figure 16: Icing at FL270 with N722BD PIREP seen

Figure 17: TAF active at the time

Figure 18: GOES-19 C13

Figure 19: GOES-19 C8

Figure 20: GOES-19 C5

Figure 21: GOES-19 C4

Figure 22: GOES-19 C2

(3) METARs:

Closest Airport:

METAR KDJT 011638Z 09017G27KT 8SM -RA SCT021 SCT028 OVC055 26/23 A3009 RMK AO2 PK WND 08031/1554 TSB11E38 P0002 T02610228 $

METAR KDJT 011653Z 09020G30KT 10SM -RA SCT021 SCT028 OVC055 27/23 A3009 RMK AO2 PK WND 08031/1554 TSB11E38 SLP189 P0002 T02670228 $

METAR KDJT 011753Z 08016G28KT 10SM -RA SCT026 SCT050 OVC060 26/23 A3006 RMK AO2 PK WND 07033/1730 SLP180 P0000 60005 T02610228 10267 20261 58014 $

METAR KDJT 011802Z 08018G24KT 8SM -TSRA SCT026CB BKN048 OVC110 26/23 A3007 RMK AO2 TSB02 OCNL LTGICCG S-NW TS S-NW MOV NW P0001 T02610233 $

METAR KDJT 011828Z 10016G22KT 2SM +TSRA BR SCT022 BKN030CB OVC040 26/23 A3007 RMK AO2 TSB02 OCNL LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV NW P0005 T02560233 $

Other Nearby:

METAR KLNA 011655Z AUTO 10014G21KT 10SM TS SCT024 BKN040 OVC049 27/21 A3008 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS T02700214

METAR KLNA 011715Z AUTO 09012G22KT 7SM VCTS SCT030 BKN036 OVC055 27/21 A3008 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SW THRU N T02670213

METAR KLNA 011735Z AUTO 12007G19KT 3SM VCTS SCT023 BKN029 OVC037 26/22 A3008 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT W THRU N T02620215

METAR KLNA 011755Z AUTO 09012G19KT 7SM VCTS OVC021 27/22 A3007 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS T02660218 10277 20260

METAR KLNA 011815Z AUTO 10013G16KT 7SM VCTS SCT021 BKN025 OVC050 27/22 A3008 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT W THRU NE T02660218

METAR KLNA 011835Z AUTO 11015G19KT 7SM VCTS SCT024 SCT036 OVC050 27/22 A3007 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S THRU N T02660215

METAR KF45 011655Z AUTO 09013G24KT 10SM VCTS -RA FEW025 OVC060 27/23 A3009 RMK AO2 PK WND 10028/21 LTG DSNT ALQDS

METAR KF45 011715Z AUTO 09010KT 10SM VCTS FEW026 OVC055 26/23 A3008 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SW-N

METAR KF45 011735Z AUTO 09013G20KT 4SM VCTS -RA HZ SCT028 BKN044 OVC055 26/23 A3008 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS

METAR KF45 011755Z AUTO 09008KT 5SM VCTS -RA BR FEW003 OVC027 25/23 A3008 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS 10269 20248

METAR KF45 011815Z AUTO 10009KT 10SM VCTS -RA OVC028 25/24 A3008 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS

(4) Area Forecast Discussion:

0538 LT

962
FXUS62 KMFL 011038
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
538 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 536 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

  - Flood watch in effect for the eastern half of South Florida
    through Monday as the potential for isolated flash flooding
    increases.

  - Minor to Moderate coastal flooding expected during times of
    high tide.

  - Dangerous marine and beach conditions are expected across the
    Atlantic coast.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Satellite imagery and model analysis data show a shortwave moving
into the eastern Gulf and assisting with the development of deep
convection. Another shortwave can be found in WV imagery over
central AR. Together, these waves are responsible for the dip in
the longwave upper-level trough over the Southeast. A CONUS-scale
surface analysis by the WPC depicts a large ridge centered over
the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, that sits under a mid/upper ridge axis
that stretches from the Northern Plains, through the Midwest, and
off the Mid-Atlantic coast. A hand analysis of the surface pattern
across the local area reveals a persistent trough along the
eastern FL coastline (along the Gulf Stream). The strong easterly
flow across this trough is resulting in bands of shower activity
developing near, and moving over SE FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Through today, the leading shortwave will cross the Peninsula as
the trailing shortwave elongates and moves into the eastern Gulf.
Stable layers in the mid-levels are preventing a robust surface
response to these upper-level shortwaves. However, the affect of
the shortwaves will be in the addition of moisture to the column
and the contribution to ascent in areas where convection is
ongoing. Thus, for the surface forcing today we`ll rely on low-
level isentropic ascent and mesoscale boundaries. Where these
features develop is uncertain; but while the development pattern
is similar to recent days, the coverage may be a bit higher, the
thunderstorm threat will be higher, and the potential for heavy
rainfall will be higher. Global ensembles, even in the day 1-2
period, have a rather large spread on QPF amounts. This is likely
due to the lack of a clear, synoptic-scale surface forcing
mechanism. However, the majority of the ensemble members would
suggest that 1-2" of rain will be a common amount for locations
across south Florida over the next 48 hours. Common high-end
amounts for localized areas could be on the order of 2-4", with
reasonable worst case scenario that a location or two could get
5-7" of rain over 48 hours. How it`s determined how much you get
will be based on whether you`re impacted by a stray shower now and
then, a couple back to back heavy showers, or a banding feature
setting up across your specific location. All of these scenarios
are probably, but pinning down the location for each is quite
difficult. The current suite of hi-res data, and trends over the
last several hours, would indicate that Broward county probably
has the greater chance for those high-end amounts today. Hi-res
guidance would also indicate this axis of heavy rain may shift
north overnight tonight, with Palm Beach county having the
greatest chance for heavy rain overnight. How wet Monday will be
is also a source of spread in the ensembles in the near term. Some
of this uncertainty is whether or not a part of the second
shortwave cuts off and meanders over the SE Gulf/Straits, or stays
connected to the mean trough and moves a bit further eastward.
Either way, showers are still expected as we remain in the
persistent low-level easterly flow regime. The question is just
how widespread and how heavy they may be.

Bottom line (at the end), is that the next couple days will be
characterized by showers and isolated storms across South Florida,
with the main threat being periods of heavy rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

A brief period of mid/upper level ridging is expected early to
mid-week, with low-level easterly flow continuing around the
surface ridge. This will likely keep us from completely drying out
through early next week. However, by mid-week, a frontal system
moving through the central CONUS is forecast to start pushing the
low-level ridge northeastward. This will give us a more southerly
component to the low-level winds and end the persistent shower
activity. It`ll still be humid, just not as wet. There is a ton of
model divergence on how that central CONUS system evolves, but it
seems like the majority of the solutions bring a pretty weak
frontal boundary through Florida by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings today with NE winds 10-15 kts and gusting
to around 25 kts. Scattered thunderstorms today may result in
brief flight restrictions and erratic winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Strong easterly flow over the Atlantic will keep seas elevated
through early this week. Advisory conditions are expected to
continue, with hazardous conditions for small craft. Showers and
storms are expected to be widespread today and tomorrow. Calming
winds and lowering seas are expected starting around mid-week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

The onshore flow and elevated winds and seas will keep a High Risk
for rip currents across Atlantic beaches well into this week.
Large breakers are expected through at least today across Broward
and Palm beaches, with a high surf advisory in effect for these
locations. Higher than usual tides will also create elevated water
levels near the coast. Dangerous beach and swim conditions are
expected through mid-week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Believe it or not we`re nearing the ebb of the astronomical tides
between the full and new moons. While we may briefly (and barely)
drop below moderate flood levels on Monday, probabilities of at
least reaching low-end moderate flood levels appear too high to
let the Coastal Flood Advisory drop. Water levels are forecast to
gradually start climbing again by mid-week as we draw closer and
closer to the New Moon on Nov 9. Hopefully we`ll be able to remove
the strong onshore wind component and pull back some of the heavy
rain potential as astronomical tide levels start to rise again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            82  74  81  74 /  80  70  90  70
West Kendall     84  74  82  74 /  80  70  90  50
Opa-Locka        83  74  82  74 /  80  70  90  70
Homestead        84  74  83  75 /  70  80  80  60
Fort Lauderdale  81  73  80  74 /  80  80  90  80
N Ft Lauderdale  82  73  81  74 /  80  80  90  80
Pembroke Pines   84  73  82  73 /  80  70  90  70
West Palm Beach  82  73  81  73 /  60  70  80  80
Boca Raton       82  74  81  74 /  70  80  90  80
Naples           84  71  82  71 /  70  60  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch from 10 AM EST this morning through Monday afternoon
     for FLZ067-068-071>074-168-172>174.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168-172.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM....Harrigan
AVIATION...CMF

1254 LT

325
FXUS62 KMFL 011754
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1254 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1251 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

  - Flood watch in effect for the Lake Okeechobee Region as well
    as the eastern half of South Florida through Monday as the
    potential for isolated flash flooding increases.

  - Minor to Moderate coastal flooding expected during times of
    high tide.

  - Dangerous marine and beach conditions are expected across the
    Atlantic coast.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Satellite imagery and model analysis data show a shortwave moving
into the eastern Gulf and assisting with the development of deep
convection. Another shortwave can be found in WV imagery over
central AR. Together, these waves are responsible for the dip in
the longwave upper-level trough over the Southeast. A CONUS-scale
surface analysis by the WPC depicts a large ridge centered over
the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, that sits under a mid/upper ridge axis
that stretches from the Northern Plains, through the Midwest, and
off the Mid-Atlantic coast. A hand analysis of the surface pattern
across the local area reveals a persistent trough along the
eastern FL coastline (along the Gulf Stream). The strong easterly
flow across this trough is resulting in bands of shower activity
developing near, and moving over SE FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Through today, the leading shortwave will cross the Peninsula as
the trailing shortwave elongates and moves into the eastern Gulf.
Stable layers in the mid-levels are preventing a robust surface
response to these upper-level shortwaves. However, the affect of
the shortwaves will be in the addition of moisture to the column
and the contribution to ascent in areas where convection is
ongoing. Thus, for the surface forcing today we`ll rely on low-
level isentropic ascent and mesoscale boundaries. Where these
features develop is uncertain; but while the development pattern
is similar to recent days, the coverage may be a bit higher, the
thunderstorm threat will be higher, and the potential for heavy
rainfall will be higher. Global ensembles, even in the day 1-2
period, have a rather large spread on QPF amounts. This is likely
due to the lack of a clear, synoptic-scale surface forcing
mechanism. However, the majority of the ensemble members would
suggest that 1-2" of rain will be a common amount for locations
across south Florida over the next 48 hours. Common high-end
amounts for localized areas could be on the order of 2-4", with
reasonable worst case scenario that a location or two could get
5-7" of rain over 48 hours. How it`s determined how much you get
will be based on whether you`re impacted by a stray shower now and
then, a couple back to back heavy showers, or a banding feature
setting up across your specific location. All of these scenarios
are probably, but pinning down the location for each is quite
difficult. The current suite of hi-res data, and trends over the
last several hours, would indicate that Broward county probably
has the greater chance for those high-end amounts today. Hi-res
guidance would also indicate this axis of heavy rain may shift
north overnight tonight, with Palm Beach county having the
greatest chance for heavy rain overnight. How wet Monday will be
is also a source of spread in the ensembles in the near term. Some
of this uncertainty is whether or not a part of the second
shortwave cuts off and meanders over the SE Gulf/Straits, or stays
connected to the mean trough and moves a bit further eastward.
Either way, showers are still expected as we remain in the
persistent low-level easterly flow regime. The question is just
how widespread and how heavy they may be.

Bottom line (at the end), is that the next couple days will be
characterized by showers and isolated storms across South Florida,
with the main threat being periods of heavy rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

A brief period of mid/upper level ridging is expected early to
mid-week, with low-level easterly flow continuing around the
surface ridge. This will likely keep us from completely drying out
through early next week. However, by mid-week, a frontal system
moving through the central CONUS is forecast to start pushing the
low-level ridge northeastward. This will give us a more southerly
component to the low-level winds and end the persistent shower
activity. It`ll still be humid, just not as wet. There is a ton of
model divergence on how that central CONUS system evolves, but it
seems like the majority of the solutions bring a pretty weak
frontal boundary through Florida by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue to affect
the region through the rest of this afternoon and into tonight.
Periods of MVFR or IFR will remain possible during this time
frame. Easterly winds of 10 to 15 kts will continue through the
rest of this afternoon and into tonight. Gusts of 20 to 25 kts
will be common especially across the east coast terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Strong easterly flow over the Atlantic will keep seas elevated
through early this week. Advisory conditions are expected to
continue, with hazardous conditions for small craft. Showers and
storms are expected to be widespread today and tomorrow. Calming
winds and lowering seas are expected starting around mid-week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

The onshore flow and elevated winds and seas will keep a High Risk
for rip currents across Atlantic beaches well into this week.
Large breakers are expected through at least today across Broward
and Palm beaches, with a high surf advisory in effect for these
locations. Higher than usual tides will also create elevated water
levels near the coast. Dangerous beach and swim conditions are
expected through mid-week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Believe it or not we`re nearing the ebb of the astronomical tides
between the full and new moons. While we may briefly (and barely)
drop below moderate flood levels on Monday, probabilities of at
least reaching low-end moderate flood levels appear too high to
let the Coastal Flood Advisory drop. Water levels are forecast to
gradually start climbing again by mid-week as we draw closer and
closer to the New Moon on Nov 9. Hopefully we`ll be able to remove
the strong onshore wind component and pull back some of the heavy
rain potential as astronomical tide levels start to rise again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            74  81  74  84 /  70  90  70  70
West Kendall     74  82  74  85 /  70  90  50  70
Opa-Locka        74  82  74  85 /  70  90  70  70
Homestead        74  83  75  86 /  80  80  60  60
Fort Lauderdale  73  80  74  83 /  80  90  80  80
N Ft Lauderdale  73  81  74  84 /  80  90  80  80
Pembroke Pines   73  82  73  85 /  70  90  70  70
West Palm Beach  73  81  73  83 /  70  80  80  80
Boca Raton       74  81  74  83 /  80  90  80  80
Naples           71  82  71  85 /  60  70  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for FLZ063-066>068-071>074-
     168-172>174.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168-172.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM....Harrigan
AVIATION...CWC

- Additional Information:
None at this point.