Sunday, November 01, 2026

Cirrus SR22 G7+, N98007, accident occurred on October 30, 2026, near Belle Glade, Florida

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this writing will be corrected when/if the NTSB preliminary report is released.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N98007

- History of Flight:
On October 29, 2026, at about 0704 local, a Cirrus SR22 G7+, N98007, registered to Cirrus Design Corp out of Duluth, Minnesota, sustained unknown damage when it departed controlled flight was involved in an airframe parachute deployment and subsequent landing in a field for unknown reasons near Belle Glade, Florida. The sole pilot onboard was not injured. The flight originated from Fort Lauderdale-Executive Airport (FXE/KFXE), 
Fort Lauderdale, Florida, at 0644.

Preliminary ADS-B data shows that the airplane departed FXE and entered a climb to an altitude of 2,500 ft. At about 0700:21, the airplane began a climb to 3,450 ft. At 0702:36, the airplane reached the conclusion of the climb, but started a right hand descending turn. At 0703:14, the airplane reached the conclusion of the turn and had descended to roughly 900 ft with a reported groundspeed of 219 knots (for reference, the aircraft was cruising at a speed of ~160 knots groundspeed before the climb) and an average vertical rate of -6000 feet per minute (fpm). After this, the airplane began a steep climbing right hand turn with a reported vertical rate of +5000 feet per minute. At 0703:40, the airplane reached an altitude of 2,025 ft and 37 knots groundspeed when it appears to have entered a stall/spin (suggested by the exceedingly low groundspeed of 35 knots, -3700 fpm vertical rate). At 0703:48, the pilot appears to have activated the airframe parachute as the airplane began a slow descent back towards the ground. The last ADS-B data point was recorded at 0704:22 over a farm field and not far from the initial on-set of the loss of control event.

Figure 1: ADS-B exchange data

Figure 2: Departure from controlled flight event before CAPS event

The ADS-B data suggests that, for the first 17 minutes of the flight before the sudden climb, the airplane was being operated with the autopilot on and the altitude hold on. Starting from 0701:04, the altitude hold was turned off, right before the climb. At 0703:15, when the airplane descended to 900 ft, the autopilot was turned off, and at 0703:33, as the airplane was climbing to 2,000 ft, the autopilot was turned on again. See figures.

Figure 1: Flysto 3D Track

Figure 2: Climb

Figure 3: Initial right hand descending turn

Figure 4: Secondary climb and CAPS deployment moment

Figure 5: Vertical Speed towards end of track (red box is general view for entire track)

At 1055, one airport, F45, was reporting a broken cloud layer at 1,600 ft AGL and 2,300 ft AGL. Another airport, KRSW, was reporting a broken cloud layer at 600 ft AGL and an overcast ceiling at 2,400 ft AGL. The last nearby airport, KOBE, was reporting few clouds at 300 ft AGL and an overcast ceiling at 3,500 ft AGL. Review of weather imagery and GFAs at the time of the event showed presence of marginal VFR conditions west of the accident site and the possibility of light rain east of the same area. The National Reflectivity Mosaic depicted very tiny echoes of 10 to 30 dbZ.

According to the airframe manufacturer, the max cruise speed is 213 KTAS, and the stall speed with flaps is 60 KCAS. The airplane was powered by a 315 hp Continental TSIO-550-K turbocharged engine.

- Weather:

Figure: National Reflectivity Mosaic for area of accident

Figure: Ceiling and Visibility Map

Figure: Precipitation map

(2) METARs:

METAR KF45 301055Z AUTO 02003KT 10SM BKN016 BKN023 OVC065 24/24 A2995 RMK AO2

METAR KF45 301115Z AUTO 02003KT 10SM FEW014 SCT020 OVC037 24/24 A2995 RMK AO2

METAR KRSW 301053Z 03006KT 10SM BKN006 OVC024 23/22 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP145 T02280217

METAR KRSW 301140Z 02008KT 10SM SCT007 OVC023 23/22 A2998 RMK AO2 T02280222

METAR KOBE 301055Z AUTO 35004KT 10SM FEW003 OVC035 22/22 A2996 RMK AO2

METAR KOBE 301115Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM BKN004 OVC034 22/22 A2996 RMK AO2

(3) Area Forecast Discussion:

304
FXUS62 KMFL 300738
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
338 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 321 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

  - Minor to moderate coastal flooding remains possible for the
    remainder of the week into the weekend. Inundated roadways
    along coastal areas will be likely.

  - Chances for heavy rainfall return starting Saturday and being
    maximized Sunday- Monday as a disturbance moves across the
    area. Generalized 1-3 inches of rain with locally higher
    amounts could lead to flooding.

  - Increasing winds and seas across the local Atlantic waters
    tonight will result in hazardous boating conditions through
    the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

The synoptic pattern should remain generally unchanged today, with
mid-level ridging in place over the Gulf and an area of high
pressure overspreading the southeastern US. This setup will continue
to promote light easterly-notheasterly winds across the area. Low-
level moisture should remain plentiful (with PWATs in the 1.5-1.8
inch range), but the 00Z MFL sounding, along with ACARS data from
KMIA, KFLL and KDJT, and forecast soundings, all show a
pronounced dry layer between 700-500mb that looks to remain in
place today. This, combined with subsidence beneath the ridge,
should help continue to limit convective activity across South
Florida throughout the day. A few isolated showers will remain
possible, mainly as a result of diurnal heating in the afternoon,
with PoPs in the 20-40% range. Chances for thunderstorms also
remain very low, but cannot be ruled out entirely. Highs today
will remain in the mid to upper 80s.

The pattern begins to transition on Saturday as an upper-level
disturbance develops over the Gulf and gradually shifts eastward. At
the same time, the axis of thr surface high over the SE CONUS
will shift southeastward, helping to strengthen the pressure
gradient across the western Atlantic waters and the FL peninsula.
This will lead to increasing northeasterly to easterly winds
across the area through the day, especially along the immediate
East Coast. Concurrently, moisture advection aloft will help erode
the dry air pocket and moisten the atmospheric column, while also
helping enhance instability across the area. This setup, along
with increasing convergence due to the enhanced pressure gradient, will
help drive up the chances for more widespread rainfall activity
on Saturday. In fact, some of the high-res guidance shows the
possibility of repeated rounds of rainfall moving in from the
Atlantic Ocean throughout the day. This could result in locally
heavy rainfall and some localized flooding in spots. HREF rainfall
accumulations show some 24-hour-accumulation bullseyes in the 1-3
inch range along the East coast metro, with a 1 in 10 chance of
some locations seeing 2-4 inches. This, combined with lingering
minor coastal flooding concerns, could exacerbate generalized
flooding concerns across vulnerable areas. Highs on Saturday will
remain in the mid 80s, with the warmest temperatures over interior
and southwest FL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

The aforementioned upper-level disturbance should move across the
Florida peninsula on Sunday, bringing the wettest period of the
forecast. Increasing large-scale ascent, cooler mid-level
temperatures and a deep moisture profile should support
widespread shower and thunderstorm development through much of the
day, with PoPs in the 80-90% range. Heavy rainfall and potential
flooding will be the main concerns, with WPC already placing the
East Coast metro areas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of
Flash flooding on Sunday and Monday. In fact, guidance shows the
highest convective coverage could be most likely along the East
Coast. However, this will ultimately be very dependent on the
timing, track and strength of the feature as it moves across the
area.

DESI 500mb heights ensemble cluster analysis still shows a primary
cluster with a weaker system that takes a more northerly track,
while the other three clusters favor some flavor of a deeper system
taking a more southerly track. The more northerly track would take
the higher rainfall totals north across northern-central FL, while
the more southerly tracks would keep the heavy rainfall
concentrated across central and south FL. Among the global
ensembles, the GEFS moves the system eastward faster, while the
ENS shows the disturbance, and thus its impacts, lingering into
Monday. As such, the ENS solution is also the wetter of the
possible options. As a result of these slight guidance
discrepancies, there is still somewhat low-to-medium confidence
regarding the forecast for Sunday and Monday, but we erred on the
side of the more southerly solutions and kept high PoPs gradually
tapering off from west to east on Monday night.

Confidence in the forecast declines further as we head into the
middle of next week. Mid-level ridging will look to build briefly
across the area, favoring a brief dry out across the region
Tuesday and Wednesday. However, later in the week the global
models try to develop the next upper level trough and surface low
over the Rockies. This complex would gradually move eastward and
potentially bring a cold front across the FL peninsula late in the
week. Considerable spread remains in the timing and strength of
this solution, and we will continue to monitor the evolution of
the forecast as we approach next week.

Temperatures will cool down a bit Sunday-Monday with the increased
storminess and cloud cover, with highs in the mid 80s. Lows will
slide into the mid 60s across the interior, and the low 70s along
the coasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Easterly-
northeasterly winds will prevail, with occasional SHRA will move
across the East Coast starting late morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Conditions will start to gradually deteriorate today as the pressure
gradient over Florida strengthens. As a result, winds across the
local Atlantic waters will increase up to 20-25 kts starting
tonight, while seas will build up to 7-10 ft along the Gulf Stream.
Small Craft Advisories will be in effect starting tonight and
through the weekend.  Conditions across the Gulf will remain below
hazardous criteria, but will need to be monitored closely. These
impacts could last through the weekend as the stout pressure
gradient and breezy easterly northeasterly winds prevail. Isolated
showers and a rogue thunderstorm or two remain possible today.
Chances for more widespread rain and storms increase during the
weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Coastal flooding remains likely along the southeastern and southern
coastlines during the high tide cycles today. Observations continue
to out-perform guidance by a decent margin, leading us to anticipate
tidal gauges to continue reaching Moderate flooding levels once
again today. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for
the Atlantic coastline, while a Coastal Flood STatement remains in
effect for mainland Monroe through this morning, where Minor stage
coastal flooding could be possible.

A high risk of rip currents will also persist along the Atlantic
coastline Sunday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            86  76  84  76 /  30  40  50  60
West Kendall     87  76  85  76 /  30  40  50  50
Opa-Locka        86  75  85  75 /  30  40  50  60
Homestead        87  76  86  76 /  20  30  50  60
Fort Lauderdale  84  75  83  75 /  40  40  50  70
N Ft Lauderdale  85  76  84  75 /  40  40  50  70
Pembroke Pines   86  75  86  75 /  40  40  50  70
West Palm Beach  84  75  84  74 /  40  20  40  60
Boca Raton       84  76  83  75 /  40  30  50  70
Naples           87  73  86  73 /  20  10  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ168-172-
     173.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168.

     High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Sunday evening
     for FLZ172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...ATV

Gippsland GA-8 Airvan, N721AV, accident occurred on October 30, 2026, near Waimea, Hawaii

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this writing will be corrected when/if the NTSB preliminary report is released.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N721AV

- History of Flight:
On October 30, 2026, at about 0900 local time, a Gippsland GA-8 Airvan, N721AV, registered to and being operated by Air Ventures Hawaii LLC, sustained substantial damage following a forced landing near Waimea, Hawaii. One passenger suffered unknown injuries, while the pilot and three passengers were not injured. The flight originated from Kauai Island/Lihue Airport (LIH/PHLI), 
Lihue, Hawaii, at 0839.

Air Ventures Hawaii LLC is a tour company and operates two Airvans out of PHLI.

Preliminary ADS-B data shows that the airplane departed and enter a climb to a cruising altitude of 2,300 ft. The moments leading up to the accident are unknown, as the accident site was located 12 miles from the last ADS-B data point.

The accident airplane, serial number GA8-07-121, was manufactured in 2007 and was powered by a Lycoming IO-540-K1A5 engine.

Cessna 172P Skyhawk, N6512K, accident occurred on October 29, 2026, at Delaware Municipal Airport (DLZ/KDLZ), Delaware, Ohio

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this writing will be corrected when/if the NTSB preliminary report is released.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N6512K

- History of Flight:
On October 29, 2026, at about 1935 local time, a Cessna 172P Skyhawk, N6512K, registered to Loomis Aviation LLC, sustained substantial damage when it struck a deer during a landing attempt on runway 28 at Delaware Municipal Airport (DLZ/KDLZ), Delaware, Ohio. The sole pilot onboard was not injured. The flight originated from Fairfield County Airport (LHQ/KLHQ), Lancaster, Ohio, at 1818.

An FAA airport remark states: "OCNL DEER & OTR WILDLIFE ON & INVOF ARPT."

Cessna 180G Skywagon, N4738U, incident occurred on October 29, 2026, at Mesa-Falcon Field Airport (FFZ/KFFZ), Mesa, Arizona

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this writing will be corrected when/if the NTSB preliminary report is released.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N4738U

- History of Flight:
On October 29, 2026, at about 1532 local time, a Cessna 180G Skywagon, N4738U, registered to SW Aviation Services Inc, sustained unknown damage when it ground looped while attempting to take off at KFFZ. The pilot was not injured. The airplane was being operated on a local personal flight.

- Weather:

METAR KFFZ 292154Z 13007KT 10SM CLR 29/08 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP095 T02890078

METAR KFFZ 292254Z 16004KT 10SM CLR 28/09 A2985 RMK AO2 SLP089 T02830089

Cessna 172S Skyhawk SP, N917MA, incident occurred on October 29, 2026, at Chicago-Midway Airport (MDW/KMDW), Chicago, Illinois

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this writing will be corrected when/if the NTSB preliminary report is released.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N917MA

- History of Flight:
On October 29, 2026, at about 1712 local time, a Cessna 172S Skyhawk SP, N917MA, registered to KS Flying Club Inc and doing business as K-State Flying Club, sustained unknown damage when it landed and while taxiing struck a fence, damaging the left wing at Chicago-Midway Airport (MDW/KMDW), Chicago, Illinois. The pilot was not injured. The flight originated from Midwest National Air Center Airport (GPH/KGPH), 
Mosby, Missouri, at 1425 LT.

- Weather:

METAR KMDW 292153Z 34010KT 10SM FEW035 20/08 A3013 RMK AO2 SLP200 T02000078

METAR KMDW 292253Z 31007KT 10SM FEW035 FEW250 18/05 A3015 RMK AO2 SLP207 T01830050

Game Composites GB1 GameBird, N810SC, incident occurred on October 29, 2026, near Las Vegas, Nevada

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this writing will be corrected when/if the NTSB preliminary report is released.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N810SC

- History of Flight:
On October 29, 2026, at about 1200 local time, a Game Composites GB1 GameBird, N810SC, registered to KD Leasing LLC and being operated by lst Sky Combat Ace, sustained unknown damage when it lost its canopy during aerobatic maneuvers near Las Vegas, Nevada. The pilot was not injured. The local flight originated from North Las Vegas Airport (VGT/KVGT), 
Las Vegas, Nevada, at 1141.

Cessna A185 Skywagon, N76TU, incident occurred on October 29, 2026, near Guymon, Oklahoma

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this writing will be corrected when/if the NTSB preliminary report is released.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N76TU

- History of Flight:
On October 29, 2026, at about 1400 local time, a Cessna A185 Skywagon, N76TU, registered to Back Country Club LLC, sustained unknown damage when it landed in a field due to an engine failure near Guymon, Oklahoma. The pilot was not injured.