Thursday, November 27, 2025

Gray RG12, C-FGEW, accident occurred on November 26, 2025, at Southwest Michigan Regional Airport (BEH/KBEH), Benton Harbor, Michigan

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this report will be corrected when the final report has been completed.

https://wwwapps.tc.gc.ca/saf-sec-sur/2/ccarcs-riacc/ADet.aspx?id=538961&rfr=RchSimp.aspx

- History of Flight:
On November 26, 2025, a Canadian-registered Piper PA-12 (Gray RG12), C-FGEW, sustained substantial damage when it was involved in an accident at Southwest Michigan Regional Airport (BEH/KBEH), Benton Harbor, Michigan. The two occupants onboard were not injured.

The airplane flipped over on landing. Winds at the time were from 240°at 27 knots, gusting 43 knots.

- Weather:

METAR KBEH 261353Z AUTO 24027G43KT 5SM -SN OVC025 02/M01 A2969 RMK AO2 PK WND 23047/1309 RAB09E13UPB13E49SNB23E27B49 SLP057 P0000 T00221011

METAR KBEH 261453Z AUTO 24027G43KT 3SM -SN BKN024 OVC034 02/M01 A2969 RMK AO2 PK WND 25045/1438 UPB1359E19B36E39SNE1359B19E28B39 SLP057 P0000 60000 T00171011 53002

Wednesday, November 26, 2025

Jabiru J230-SP, N755J, fatal accident occurred on November 14, 2025, near New Bavaria, Ohio

  • Location: New Bavaria, OH 
  • Accident Number: ERA26FA039 
  • Date & Time: November 14, 2025, 17:08 Local 
  • Registration: N755J 
  • Aircraft: JABIRU USA SPORT AIRCRAFT LLC J230-SP 
  • Injuries: 2 Fatal 
  • Flight Conducted Under: Part 91: General aviation - Personal

https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-repgen/api/Aviation/ReportMain/GenerateNewestReport/202008/pdf

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N755J

On November 14, 2025, at 1708 eastern standard time, a Jabiru USA Sport Aircraft LLC J230- SP, N755J, was substantially damaged when it was involved in an accident near New Bavaria, Ohio. The sport pilot and passenger were fatally injured. The airplane was operated as a Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 91 personal flight.

A review of preliminary ADS-B data showed that the airplane departed Fulton County Airport (USE), Wauseon, Ohio, where the airplane was based about 1458. It then flew for about 2 hours around northwest Ohio at geometric altitudes between 3,100 ft mean sea level (msl) and 1,700 ft msl. At 1656 the airplane entered the accident area and began a descent from about 3,000 ft msl. It circled the accident area multiple times, descending to a minimum altitude of 103 ft above ground level (agl) at 1707:02. The airplane then began a climbing left turn which reached a maximum altitude of 428 ft agl at 1707:11. The left turn continued and the last data point, at 1707:17, showed the airplane at an altitude of 152 ft agl.

A family member who lived across the street from the accident site reported that the pilot would often fly over their house at a low altitude and that family members would go outside to wave. On the day of the accident, a family member reported hearing the airplane fly overhead and going outside to wave. The airplane flew over the house at a low altitude and, after passing over the house, began a left turn to pass over the house again. Before the airplane passed back over the house, while in the left turn, the family member heard sounds of an impact. The family member further reported that the airplane’s engine sound was loud and constant. Another witness, who was working in a field near the accident site, reported that he saw the airplane circle overhead 3 times. As the airplane passed over the family members’ house it began a steep left turn, with its wings nearly perpendicular to the ground indicative of a near 90° bank angle. The airplane then descended until the left wingtip struck the ground.

The debris path located in a tilled field, was about 370 ft in length, and oriented on a magnetic heading of about 125°. The initial impact mark was located about 250 ft past the last ADS-B track data point. The main impact crater was about 25 ft from the initial impact mark. The airplane fuselage came to rest on top of the right wing on its left side. It was on a magnetic heading of 235° at an altitude of 731 ft mean sea level and was located about 220 ft from the initial impact mark. The vertical stabilizer and rudder remained attached to the fuselage and the horizontal stabilizer and elevator were impact separated and found about 120 ft from the main wreckage. The left wing and left aileron were impact separated and found 70 ft and 175 ft from the main wreckage, respectively. The right aileron was impact separated and was found about 130 ft from the right wing. Flight control continuity was confirmed from all flight control surfaces to the cockpit area through multiple impact separations.

The left wing fuel tank and header fuel tank were breached and contained no fuel. The right wing fuel tank was about half full of liquid consistent with fuel. The engine was impact separated from the firewall and was found about 70 ft from the main wreckage. The engine was able to be rotated by hand and continuity of the crankshaft was confirmed to the accessory case. The engine carburetor was impact separated and found about 40 ft past the main wreckage. The carburetor exhibited impact damage, and the carburetor bowl was impact separated from the carburetor. Both propeller blades were impact separated and found in the debris path. One blade was impact separated at the propeller hub and the other blade was impact separated about 6 inches from the propeller hub.

Multiple electronic devices capable of recording flight data were located in the debris path and exhibited impact damage. They were retained and sent to the NTSB Vehicle Recorders Laboratory for data download.

The wreckage was retained for further examination.

Maule M-7-235A, N9234N, accident occurred on October 31, 2025, at Friday Harbor Airport (FHR/KFHR), Friday Harbor, Washington

  • Location: Friday Harbor, WA 
  • Accident Number: WPR26LA035 
  • Date & Time: October 31, 2025, 12:27 Local 
  • Registration: N9234N 
  • Aircraft: Maule M-7-235A 
  • Injuries: 1 None 
  • Flight Conducted Under: Part 91: General aviation - Personal

https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-repgen/api/Aviation/ReportMain/GenerateNewestReport/201953/pdf

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N9234N

On October 31, 2025, at about 1227 Pacific daylight time, a Maule M-7-235A, N9234N, was substantially damaged when it was involved in an accident at Friday Harbor Airport (FHR), Friday Harbor, Washington. The pilot was not injured. The airplane was operated as a Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 91 personal flight.

The pilot reported that, as he approached runway 16, he observed there was a gusting crosswind from the left. The pilot compensated for the crosswind by landing on the left main tire first, followed by the right main tire. Immediately after the right main tire contacted the runway surface, the right main landing gear failed, and the airplane ground looped to the left. As a result, the airplane sustained substantial damage to the wings and fuselage. Examination of the right main landing gear revealed a fracture at a weld inboard of the wheel axle.

The right main landing gear was retained for further examination.

ICP MXP-740 Savannah, N358D, accident occurred on November 7, 2025, in Pacific, Washington

  • Location: Pacific, WA 
  • Accident Number: WPR26LA041 
  • Date & Time: November 7, 2025, 13:31 Local 
  • Registration: N358D 
  • Aircraft: BESSLER DUANE LYNN SAVANNAH 
  • Injuries: 2 None 
  • Flight Conducted Under: Part 91: General aviation - Personal 

https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-repgen/api/Aviation/ReportMain/GenerateNewestReport/201985/pdf

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N358D

On November 7, 2025 at 1331 Pacific standard time, an experimental amateur-built ICP Savannah amphibious airplane, N358D, was substantially damaged when it was involved in an accident near Pacific, Washington. The pilot and the passenger were not injured. The airplane was operated as a Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 91 personal flight.

The pilot reported that, while in cruise flight, the propeller separated from the engine. The pilot realized he was unable to glide the airplane to the destination airport and selected a grassy field to perform a forced landing. During the forced landing in the field, the wheels and floats sank into soft grass, and the airplane nosed over, coming to rest inverted. As a result, the airplane sustained substantial damage to the wings and fuselage.

The airplane was recovered from the accident site and retained for further examination. To date, the propeller has not been recovered.

Piper PA-28-181 Archer TX, N4402N, accident occurred on November 17, 2025, near Mesa, Arizona

  • Location: Mesa, AZ 
  • Accident Number: WPR26LA045 
  • Date & Time: November 17, 2025, 08:30 Local 
  • Registration: N4402N 
  • Aircraft: PIPER AIRCRAFT INC PA-28-181 
  • Injuries: 2 None 
  • Flight Conducted Under: Part 91: General aviation - Instructional

https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-repgen/api/Aviation/ReportMain/GenerateNewestReport/202014/pdf

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N4402N

On November 17, 2025, about 0830 mountain standard time, a Piper PA 28-181, N4402N, was substantially damaged when it was involved in an accident near Mesa, Arizona. The flight instructor and student pilot were not injured. The airplane was operated as a Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 91 instructional flight.

The flight instructor reported that after a training flight they had returned to Falcon Field Airport (FFZ), Mesa, Arizona, where they then conducted 3 touch and go landings and a goaround. They continued their training in the traffic pattern and were in an extended downwind for runway 4L. After entering the base leg of the traffic pattern and as they were preparing for the approach, an uncommanded reduction of power occurred. The flight instructor took control of the airplane and advanced the mixture lever and moved the throttle lever; however, he was unable to restore engine power. The flight instructor soon realized they would not make the runway and assessed the limited landing options. He subsequently made a forced landing on a gravel road that paralleled a water canal. After landing, about 100 yards into the landing roll, the right wing collided with a cinder block fence and the airplane came to rest. The airplane sustained substantial damage to the fuselage, left stabilizer and both wings.

The airplane was recovered to a secure location for further examination.

Loss of control in flight: Robinson R44 Raven II, N67RW, accident occurred on July 9, 2025, near Inlet, New York


  • Location: Inlet, New York 
  • Accident Number: ERA25LA267 
  • Date & Time: July 9, 2025, 12:22 Local 
  • Registration: N67RW 
  • Aircraft: ROBINSON HELICOPTER COMPANY R44 II 
  • Aircraft Damage: Substantial 
  • Defining Event: Loss of control in flight 
  • Injuries: 3 None 
  • Flight Conducted Under: Part 91: General aviation - Personal 

https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-repgen/api/Aviation/ReportMain/GenerateNewestReport/200538/pdf

https://data.ntsb.gov/Docket?ProjectID=200538

The pilot reported that while approaching to land in his yard, while still over water, he lowered the collective to prevent an increase in altitude when he flared. As the helicopter began to settle, he increased the collective; however, his hand was too far up the collective and his grip prevented the governor from automatically increasing the throttle to increase rotor rpm and maintain lift when the collective was raised. The helicopter impacted the water resulting in substantial damage to the tail boom. The pilot reported that there were no preaccident mechanical malfunctions or failures with the helicopter that would have precluded normal operation.

- Probable Cause: The pilot's failure to maintain control of the helicopter during the landing.

Cessna 172N Skyhawk, N7805G, incident occurred on November 24, 2025, at Parr Airport (42I), Zanesville, Ohio

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this report will be corrected when the final report has been completed.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N7805G

- History of Flight:
On November 24, 2025, at about 1029 local time, a privately-registered Cessna 172N Skyhawk, N7805G, struck powerlines located short of runway 28 at Parr Airport (42I), Zanesville, Ohio. The sole pilot onboard was not injured.

According to preliminary Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B) data, the airplane conducted 3 touch and go(es) at Zanesville Municipal Airport (KZZV), Zanesville, Ohio, before proceeding northwest towards 42I. At 1025, the airplane entered a 360 orbit for runway 28 while maintaining 1,500 ft. Towards the end of the orbit, at 1527, the airplane started descending for runway 28. At 1029, the airplane was on final approach to runway 28 and descending through 500 ft. It is most likely that the airplane struck the powerlines that are located 815 ft short of the runway and that run across a residential street (see figures). The airplane touched down on the runway and veered left.

The FAA reported; "Aircraft struck power lines on short final and landed in a field," and rated the damage as "Unknown."

Figure 1: Flight

Figure 2: Approach to 42I

Figure 3: Final Approach

Figure 4: Unmarked powerlines

- Weather:

METAR KZZV 241453Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 03/01 A3027 RMK AO2 SLP256 I3000 T00280006 53002

METAR KZZV 241553Z AUTO 13005KT 10SM CLR 07/02 A3025 RMK AO2 SLP249 T00720017

Cessna T210F Turbo Centurion, N6743R, incident occurred on November 24, 2025, at Mustang Beach Airport (RAS/KRAS), Port Aransas, Texas

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this report will be corrected when the final report has been completed.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N6743R

- History of Flight:
On November 24, 2025, at about 1639 local time, a privately-registered Cessna T210F Turbo Centurion, N6743R, landed gearup on runway 12 at Mustang Beach Airport (RAS/KRAS), Port Aransas, Texas. The pilot and passenger were not injured. The flight originated from Childress Municipal Airport (CDS/KCDS), Childress, Texas, and was destined to KRAS.

Lancair Legacy, N201BL, incident occurred on November 24, 2025, at San Diego-Gillespie Field (SEE/KSEE), El Cajon, California

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this report will be corrected when the final report has been completed.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N201BL

- History of Flight:
On November 24, 2025, at about 1118 local time, a privately-registered
 Lancair Legacy, N201BL, sustained minor damage when it was involved in an incident at San Diego-Gillespie Field (SEE/KSEE), El Cajon, California. The pilot was not injured. The local flight originated from KSEE.

The FAA reported that the aircraft experienced engine issues, clipped a fence and landed hard damaging the right main gear. ADS-B data suggests this is one of the two fences (figure 2) located short of runway 27R. The damage was rated as "minor."

Figure 1

Figure 2

- Weather:

METAR KSEE 241847Z 00000KT 10SM SKC 19/10 A3017

METAR KSEE 241927Z 00000KT 10SM SKC 20/09 A3017 RMK AIRCRAFT INCIDENT

METAR KSEE 241947Z 00000KT 10SM SKC 20/09 A3013 RMK RY27L IN USE 27R CLSD

Piper PA-34-200 Seneca, N56368, incident occurred on November 10, 2025, at Lincoln Airport (LNK/KLNK), Lincoln, Nebraska

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this report will be corrected when the final report has been completed.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N56368

- History of Flight:
On November 10, 2025, at about 0946 local time, a Piper PA-34-200 Seneca, N56368, operated by the Ignite Flight Academy, sustained unknown damage when it was involved in an incident at Lincoln Airport (LNK/KLNK), Lincoln, Nebraska. The flight instructor and student pilot were not injured. The local training flight originated from LNK.

The FAA reported that; "Aircraft conducting a touch and go and the gear was mistakenly retracted."

PteroDynamics X-P4 Transwing, N566PD, accident occurred on October 30, 2025, near Calhan, Colorado

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this report will be corrected when the final report has been completed.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N566PD

- History of Flight:
On October 30, 2025, at about 1115 local time, a PteroDynamics X-P4 Transwing UAV, N566PD, registered to PteroDynamics Inc out of Colorado Springs, CO, was destroyed when it was involved in an accident near Calhan, Colorado. There were no injuries. The electrically-powered VTOL fixed-wing UAV was being operated as an on-demand flight.

According to the FAA; "Pic lost control of UAS and crashed to the ground sparking a fire."

Figure 1: exemplar aircraft

Grumman American AA-5B Tiger, N74323, accident occurred on October 29, 2025, near Santa Ynez Airport (IZA/KIZA), Santa Ynez, California

  • Location: Santa Ynez, CA 
  • Accident Number: WPR26LA037 
  • Date & Time: October 29, 2025, 18:20 Local 
  • Registration: N74323 
  • Aircraft: GRUMMAN AMERICAN AVN. CORP. AA-5B 
  • Injuries: 1 None 
  • Flight Conducted Under: Part 91: General aviation - Personal
https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-repgen/api/Aviation/ReportMain/GenerateNewestReport/201956/pdf

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N74323

On October 29, 2025, about 1820 Pacific daylight time, a Grumman American AA-5B, N74323, was substantially damaged when it was involved in an accident near Santa Ynez, California. The commercial pilot was not injured. The airplane was operated as a Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 91 personal flight.

The pilot stated that the purpose of the flight was to maneuver the airplane within and above the traffic pattern of the airport. The pilot departed from runway 26 and began following the noise-abatement climb-out procedures. During the initial climb, the engine began to operate abnormally and, after about three seconds, experienced a total loss of power.

The pilot further stated that he maneuvered the airplane in a shallow turn back toward the airport. He determined that the airplane would be unable to maintain sufficient altitude to return to the runway and began searching for an area to conduct an off-airport landing. He elected to touch down in a vineyard just outside the airport perimeter and secured the cockpit by retarding the mixture to full OFF. During the accident sequence, the airplane collided with grapevines and fence posts, which resulted in substantial damage to the left horizontal stabilizer.

According to a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) inspector who performed an initial examination of the airplane, the fuel tanks were ruptured as a result of the impact. The inspector was able to drain liquid from the inboard fuel tanks, and the recovered sample was clean of debris and similar in odor to fuel. An external examination of the engine revealed no evidence of holes or catastrophic damage.

The wreckage was retained for further examination.

Piper PA-18-150 Super Cub (Danchini Cub), N794AK, accident occurred on November 24, 2025, near Wasilla, Alaska

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this report will be corrected when the final report has been completed.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N794AK

- History of Flight:
On November 24, 2025, at about 1409 local time, a Danchini Cub, N794AK, sustained substantial damage when it was involved in an accident near Wasilla, Alaska. The pilot and passenger were not injured.

The FAA reported that; "Aircraft lost engine power on takeoff and crashed in a yard," and that the aircraft was departing at the time.

Tuesday, November 25, 2025

Cessna 172N Skyhawk, N80FP, fatal accident occurred on November 24, 2025, near New Orleans, Louisiana

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this report will be corrected when the final report has been completed.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N80FP

- History of Flight:
On November 24, 2025, at about 1823 local time, a Cessna 172N Skyhawk, N80FP, registered to Carastro Enterprises LLC out of Montgomery, Alabama, was destroyed when it impacted Lake Pontchartrain near New Orleans, Louisiana. The flight instructor and student pilot onboard sustained fatal injuries. The flight originated from the Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport (GPT/KGPT), Gulfport, Mississippi, and was destined to an unknown location.

According to preliminary Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B) data, at 1743 LT, the airplane departed KGPT and entered a climbing right turn to an altitude of 4,100 ft. At 1800, the airplane entered a descent to 1,900 ft to avoid weather activity that was present near Slidell, Louisiana. At 1816:52, the airplane was flying over Lake Pontchartrain and entered a left hand turn towards the south. At this point, the airplane kept a somewhat steady flight, but was losing groundspeed. At 1820:49, the airplane was at 1,800 ft, 76 knots GS, with an average rate of -200 feet per minute (fpm). At 1823:06, the airplane was at 1,200 ft, 45 knots groundspeed, with a positive average rate of 320 fpm. The airplane then entered a descending left hand turn. The last ADS-B return was recorded at the conclusion of the turn at 1823:29. The airplane was at 700 ft, 122 knots GS, with an average rate of -7275 feet per minute (fpm).

Preliminary information indicates that the airplane was being diverted to the New Orleans Municipal Airport (NEW/KNEW), New Orleans, Louisiana. The airplane came down about 4 miles north of the airport.

Figure 1: Flightpath after takeoff.

Figure 2: Towards end of track.

Figure 3: Last few seconds

- Pilot Information:
Unknown at this point.

- Airplane Information:
The four-seat, high wing, fixed gear airplane, serial number 17271343, was manufactured in 1978. It was powered by a Lycoming O-320 engine.

- Wreckage and Impact Information:
The airplane was destroyed when it impacted the lake. The wreckage was located later by the Coast Guard.

- Weather:
The reported weather at KNEW, at 1808 included: winds 120 at 9 knots, 10 statute miles visibility, an broken  ceiling at 1,000 ft AGL, a temperature of 22° C, a dew point of 21° C, and a barometric altimeter setting of 29.99 inches of mercury.

The reported weather at KNEW, at 1839 included: winds 130 at 11 knots, 10 statute miles visibility, an broken ceiling at 800 ft AGL, a temperature of 22° C, a dew point of 21° C, and a barometric altimeter setting of 29.99 inches of mercury.

(1) METARs:

METAR KNEW 250008Z 12009KT 10SM BKN010 22/21 A2999 RMK AO1 T02220206

METAR KNEW 250039Z 13011KT 10SM BKN008 22/21 A2999 RMK AO1 T02220211

METAR KNEW 250053Z 13009KT 10SM SCT008 22/21 A2998 RMK AO1 SLP147 T02220211

(2) Area Forecast Discussion:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1233 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

- A cold front will bring scattered to numerous showers and
  thunderstorms to the area tonight through Tuesday. There is a
  low chance (level 1-2 of 5) of severe weather with these storms.
  IF any storms become severe, the main threat will be damaging
  wind gusts which can result in downed tree limbs and power
  outages as well as minor damage to some structures.

- A major cool down will follow the cold front. The coldest
  temperatures are forecast Friday morning, with lows generally in
  the mid to upper 30s across areas along/north of the I-10/12
  corridor. A few places could briefly touch freezing - mainly
  across SW MS, and within the Pearl and Pascagoula River drainage
  areas.

- Strong winds over the coastal waters in the wake of the cold
  front will lead to hazardous conditions for small craft. A Small
  Craft Advisory will likely be needed Wednesday afternoon through
  at least midday Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

A shortwave trough/disturbance located over the plains states
will move eastward through tonight, gradually flattening as it
does so. The surface front associated with this system currently
stretches from northern Oklahoma through central Texas. Scattered
to numerous showers and storms have developed ahead of the
frontal boundary in a confluence zone stretching from northeastern
Arkansas to southern Texas. This convective activity will also
progress eastward through tonight but will lose some of its
support as it approaches the local area. Not only will it be
approaching overnight without the benefit of daytime heating, the
upper trough driving it eastward will start to flatten and lift
toward the northeast.

Despite these factors, the right entrance region of a strengthening
850mb jet will pass over the area late tonight into tomorrow
morning, so the thunderstorm threat cannot be ignored. Model
forecast soundings still indicate modest CAPE (around 1000 J/kg
in some areas) and shear as the storms approach, so any storms
that do make it into the local area will have some potential to
become strong to locally severe.

This first wave of activity looks to die out by mid morning
Tuesday, with a second round of showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. By this time, the 850mb jet will
have pulled away from the local area, and CAPE and shear will be
more limited. While one or two strong storms can`t be ruled out,
the overall severe weather threat appears low.

The longer wave upper trough finally pushes the surface front
through the local area Tuesday night with much cooler and drier
air moving in behind it.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Colder and drier high pressure will build into the area in the
wake of the cold front beginning Wednesday. By Wednesday night,
expect temperatures to drop well below normal setting up for a
cool Thanksgiving Day. Morning lows are forecast to bottom out in
the upper 30s and lower 40s north and in the mid to upper 40s
south, with highs only rebounding into the low to mid 60s.

The coldest temperatures will be Thursday night into Friday
morning as the axis of the surface high pressure moves over the
local area. MOS guidance has been trending downward over the last
several runs, and is indicating potential for freezing conditions
in some areas Friday morning. The NBM has not been so bullish, but
it should be noted the deterministic NBM is one of the warmest
solutions, with its forecast lows sitting around or above its own
75th percentile across roughly the northeastern half of the local
area. With that being said, have made some downward adjustments
nudging toward the 50th percentile across areas generally
along/east of I-55 and along/north of I-10/12.

Current forecast will keep temperatures just above freezing
everywhere, but further adjustments may be necessary and an hour
or two of temperatures near or just below freezing cannot be ruled
out - especially across southwestern Mississippi and through the
Pearl and Pascagoula drainage areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Biggest concern through the period will be potential for lower
cigs/vsbys associated with showers and thunderstorms overnight.
Greatest threat of thunderstorms will be across northern
terminals, but overall chances really only justify PROB30 groups.
Main timing will be late tonight into Tuesday morning. A second
wave of showers and a few storms could redevelop Tuesday
afternoon, though the best chances will be after 18z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

A warm front located near the coast will move inland today as a cold
front approaches from the west. Ahead of the cold front, expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the coastal waters
beginning late tonight. A tightening pressure gradient will also
cause winds to strengthen and exercise caution headlines have been
issued for portions of the outer waters late tonight. The front will
finally move through the coastal waters Tuesday night, with high
pressure building over the area in its wake. The combination of cold
air advection over the relatively warm waters, and the pressure
gradient between the high and low will cause winds to strengthen
into the 20-25kt range and Small Craft Advisories will likely be
needed Wednesday afternoon through at least midday Thursday. As the
high settles into the area later in the week, winds will ease and
turn back to the southeast as the high shifts east of the area by
Saturday.

- Additional Information:
None at this point.

Piper PA-24-180 Comanche, N8328P, incident occurred on November 24, 2025, near Brooksville-Tampa Bay Regional Airport (BKV/KBKV), Brooksville, Florida

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this report will be corrected when the final report has been completed.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N8328P

- History of Flight:
On November 24, 2025, at about 1423 local time, a Piper PA-24-180 Comanche, N8328P, sustained unknown damage in a forced landing near Brooksville, Florida. The pilot and two passengers were not injured. The cross-country flight originated from Gainesville-Lee Gilmer Memorial Airport (GVL/KGVL), 
Gainesville, Georgia, at about 1124 LT, and was destined to the Tampa Bay Regional Airport (BKV/KBKV), Brooksville, Florida.

The pilot reported a rough running engine and landed the airplane gearup in an open field 2 miles north of KBKV. The flight lasted 3 hours.

- Weather:

METAR KBKV 241853Z 14004KT 10SM CLR 28/16 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP187 T02830161

METAR KBKV 241953Z 10SM FEW043 28/17 A3008 RMK AO2 SLP184 T02780167

Socata TBM700C2, N111RF, fatal accident occurred on November 24, 2025, near Monroe Municipal Airport (EFT/KEFT), Monroe, Wisconsin

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this report will be corrected when the final report has been completed.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N111RF

- History of Flight:
On November 24, 2025, at about 1714 local time, a privately-registered Socata TBM700C2, N111RF, was destroyed when it was involved in an accident near Monroe Municipal Airport (EFT/KEFT), Monroe, Wisconsin. The pilot and passenger sustained fatal injuries. The personal flight originated from the Oshkosh-Wittman Field (OSH/KOSH), Oshkosh, Wisconsin, and was destined to KEFT. 
Nighttime instrument meteorological conditions prevailed at the time of the accident.

According to preliminary Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B) data, the airplane departed runway 18 at Oshkosh and proceeded to an inflight cruising altitude of 8,000 ft. The flight appeared uneventful. About 20 minutes into the flight, the airplane started its descent towards Monroe. At about 1707 LT, the airplane entered a left turn to join the RNAV (GPS) runway 12 approach at KEFT. The airplane did not appear to be correctly aligned, but was at the correct altitudes. At 1711, the airplane was at 2800 ft, 139 knots groundspeed, and descending 640 feet per minute (fpm) when it reached point IGOGY. At 1712:41, the airplane was one mile from the runway at 1,500 ft, 109 knots GS, and descending 700 fpm when it entered a climbing left hand turn to 1,800 ft. At 1713:04, the airplane was at 1,700 ft, 158 knots GS, with an average rate of about -2240 fpm. The next data point showed a rate of -5888 fpm. At 1713:13, the airplane was at 1,200 ft, 147 knots GS, but now had a positive average rate of about 9920 fpm. The next few data points showed a very aggressive left hand climbing turn, with a reported average rate of about 12,000 fpm. This turn put the aircraft on a 89 degree (east) track heading, and concluded at 1713:24, when the airplane was at 3,000 ft, 52 knots GS, with a positive rate of 1280 fpm. The next data point was the last one recorded. The airplane was seen at 1,700 ft, 82 knots GS, with an average rate of -16,700 feet per minute (fpm). This point was recorded over a gravel query located 0.36 mile north of runway 20.

The FAA reported that the aircraft crashed under unknown circumstances in the query.

Figure 1: Descent from cruise and approach to KEFT (flysto).

Figure 2: Approach to KEFT (flysto).

Figure 3: Aggressive climb towards the end of track (Flysto).

- Pilot Information:
Unknown at this point.

According to public FAA records, the current registered owner holds a private pilot certificate (issued/updated on 5/21/2010) with a rating for airplane single engine land and an instrument rating. His first class FAA medical was issued in January 2025, with a note that he must wear corrective lens(es) to meet vision standards at all required distances.

- Airplane Information:
The airplane, a Socata TBM 700 C2, serial number 268, was manufactured in 2003. The low-wing airplane was of conventional aluminum construction and was equipped with a retractable tricycle landing gear and a pressurized cabin that was configured to seat six individuals. The airplane was powered by a 700 shaft-horsepower Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A-64 turbo-propeller engine, through a 4-blade, constant speed, full-feathering, Hartzell propeller assembly. The airplane was approved for operations in instrument meteorological conditions and in known icing conditions. The airplane had a maximum allowable takeoff weight of 7,394 pounds. The airplane was registered to the current owner/operator on 01/22/2016.

The airplane had two fuel tanks, one located in each wing, and a total fuel capacity of 290.6 gallons (281.6 gallons usable).

According to the Socata TBM 700 C2 Pilot Operating Handbook (POH), Supplement No. 41, the aerodynamic stall speed at maximum takeoff weight with the landing gear and flaps extended for landing is 65 knots. The aerodynamic stall speed at maximum takeoff weight with the landing gear and flaps extended for takeoff is 77 knots. The aerodynamic stall speed at maximum takeoff weight with the landing gear and flaps retracted is 83 knots. The approach speed with flaps in the landing position is 85 knots.

- Wreckage and Impact Information:
There are no known photos from the accident site.

- Airport Information:
Monroe Municipal Airport is a non-towered public airport located 3 miles northeast of Monroe, Wisconsin. The airport field elevation was 1085.5 ft. The airport features two runways, runway 12/30, and runway 2/20. There is an RNAV (GPS) approach for runway 12 and 30, and a VOR/DME approach to 30.

The charted LNAV MDA minimums at KEFT are a descent altitude of 1480 feet msl (300 feet agl), and a visibility of 1 mile.

According to the approach plate, during a missed approach procedure, the aircraft must climb to 3000 direct FALKN and on a track 143 to DAVIS and hold.

There was an active NOTAM at the time (!EFT 10/004 EFT RWY 12 PAPI U/S 2510202208-2604202359) indicating that the runway 12 Precision approach path indicators (PAPIs) were unserviceable.

- Weather:
The reported weather at KEFT, at 1655 included: winds 180 at 6 knots, 0.25 statute miles visibility, fog, an overcast ceiling at 300 ft AGL, a temperature of 7° C, a dew point of 7° C, and a barometric altimeter setting of 29.92 inches of mercury.

The reported weather at KEFT, at 1715 included: winds 170 at 3 knots, 0.25 statute miles visibility, fog, an overcast ceiling at 300 ft AGL, a temperature of 7° C, a dew point of 7° C, and a barometric altimeter setting of 29.92 inches of mercury.

The reported weather at KEFT, at 1735 included: winds 180 at 6 knots, 0.25 statute miles visibility, fog, an overcast ceiling at 300 ft AGL, a temperature of 7° C, a dew point of 7° C, and a barometric altimeter setting of 29.91 inches of mercury.

(1) METARs:

METAR KEFT 242255Z AUTO 18006KT 1/4SM FG OVC003 07/07 A2992 RMK AO2 T00660066

METAR KEFT 242315Z AUTO 17003KT 1/4SM FG OVC003 07/07 A2992 RMK AO2 T00670067

METAR KEFT 242335Z AUTO 18006KT 1/4SM FG OVC003 07/07 A2991 RMK AO2 T00680068

(2) Area Forecast Discussion:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
230 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds, fog and drizzle/light rain will spread into
  southern Wisconsin this afternoon and linger into Tuesday.
  Periods of dense fog are possible.

- Much colder and blustery for Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day.

- Active pattern with the potential for accumulating snow for
  the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 230 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Rest of Today through Wednesday:

We continue to expect low clouds and some fog as well as
mist/drizzle to push in over the next several hours though it
has bee much slower to push in than previously thought. It still
remains uncertain on how quickly this will occur but it at least
appears likely to happen at some point. The other uncertainties
more have to do with how impactful the fog will be once it moves
in. Some dense fog will be possible, especially overnight. In
addition some patches of light rain may push in as well, likely
due to the PVA from the weakening trough aloft, some WAA, with
enough midlevel moisture to support some showers. Regardless
drizzle and mist look to remain likely for much of the area
given the low level moisture and minor low level forcing.
However, southern WI still in large part expects to be missed by
the vast majority of the better forcing to the north and
southeast that would bring better rain amounts. We may be able
to expect some better rain chances in far southeast WI and
toward central WI later tonight into Tuesday morning.

As the warm front lifts through tonight we may dry out into
Tuesday, though drizzle will remain possible. We should also
expect to warm up a bit with southerly winds but clouds will
likely keep temperatures from escaping the low 50s. The cold
front will then be expected to swing through Tuesday
evening/night bringing the best chances (60-80%) for widespread
rain showers. With the surface low becoming fairly strong this
will help usher in some very chilly air by late Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. Given that we will still have the
surface low in the region with some TROWAL effect we could
easily see some snow on the backside of this system. In fact it
cannot be ruled out that we see some mild accumulations up to an
inch on the northern side of the CWA over the course of the day
Wednesday.

With a strong LLJ aloft, winds will significantly increase by
early Wednesday morning with afternoon wind gusts over the land
having potential to reach Wind Advisory criteria, especially
closer to the lake.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 230 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Wednesday night through Monday:

Winds will come down a bit Wednesday night as the LLJ weakens
and the low pushes further east but we expect to remain breezy
into Thursday. Given the continued breeziness and very cold
conditions ushered in by the cold front expect wind chills in
the single digits Thursday morning. Forecast 1000-500mb
thicknesses are expected to reach near 515dam from Thursday
morning through Friday morning. This will keep very chilly
temperatures through that period. Wind chills Friday morning
will also reach the single digits but that will largely be
because of cooler temperatures but weaker winds overall. Likely
less cloud cover Friday due to higher pressure overhead will
contribute to lower temperatures.

Into Saturday, attention quickly turns to the uncertainty in the
forecast of an upper level trough to the west and various
embedded disturbances that will play a substantial role in the
potential for an impactful winter system. Currently the
uncertainty is such that no discernible outlook would properly
encompass the situation as there is timing, phasing, and track
issues with this next system that each of which will greatly
change the impact of this system. Various models bring some
light snow ahead of the main system which brings largely rain
while other models suggest mostly snow, early arrival, and
substantial accumulation potential. While uncertainty is
massive, it remains something to keep an eye on as the impacts
could be significant if it trends toward a compact, panhandle
hook scenario that we remain on the cool side of. In addition
this impacts the forecast into early next week with substantial
temp differences within ensembles given the differences in the
development and progression of the upper low/trough over the
weekend.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 230 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

The onset of aviation impacts today has been delayed likely by
some low level dry air. However, LIFR/IFR CIGS with MVFR to IFR
VSBYS are finally starting to push in from the southwest this
afternoon with impacts to VSBYS and CIGS expected for much of
southern WI over the next several hours but may be until tonight
before is fully encompasses southern WI. Drizzle/mist will also
be likely given the abundant very low level moisture. There is
some uncertainty on how widespread the lowest VSBYS get and how
low but some quarter mile VSBYS seem possible, particularly
later tonight. CIGS look much more likely to be LIFR, perhaps
even some VLIFR with some periods of MVFR/IFR as the lower end
CIGS push in. The timing looks focused for tonight. The best
chances for rain this evening and tonight appear largely focused
for west central and far southeast WI.

Some VSBY and CIG improvement is expected into the day Tuesday
but generally expected to remain IFR at least and continuing
through Tuesday night.

Kuroski

- Additional Information:
None at this point.

Piper PA-46-701TP M700 Fury, N646U, accident occurred on November 24, 2025, at Provo Airport (PVU/KPVU), Provo, Utah

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this post will be corrected when the preliminary report is released.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N646U

- History of Flight:
On November 24, 2025, at about 1528 local time, a Piper PA-46-701TP M700 Fury, N646U, registered to AS Aviation LLC out of Santa Clarita, CA, sustained substantial damage when it was involved in an accident at Provo Airport (PVU/KPVU), Provo, Utah. The pilot and three passengers were not injured. The cross-country flight originated from PVU, and was destined to the Los Angeles-Van Nuys Airport (VNY/KVNY), Van Nuys, California.

According to preliminary Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B) data, at 1513 LT, the airplane taxied from the ramp to runway 13. At 1518, the airplane started its takeoff run from the runway. At 1519, the airplane entered a climbing right hand turn to an altitude 5,550 ft. At 1522, the airplane entered a right turn and continued climbing. At 1524, the airplane was at 7,550 ft when it started a descent back towards the airport. At 1526, the airplane entered a right turn, headed towards runway 13. At about 1528:50 - 1529:00, the airplane touched down on runway 13 and came to rest upright. One fuel tank was ruptured causing a temporary post accident fire than was contained by the fire department. One passenger was transported to a local hospital.

This is the first accident involving the M700 Fury type.

Figure 1: ADS-B exchange track

- Weather:

METAR KPVU 242156Z 28004KT 10SM CLR 07/02 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP220 T00670017

METAR KPVU 242234Z 00000KT 10SM CLR 07/02 A3017 RMK AO2

Monday, November 24, 2025

Piper PA-28R-201 Arrow III, N47700, fatal accident occurred on November 23, 2025, near Pittsfield, Illinois

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this report will be corrected when the final report has been completed.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N47700

- History of Flight:
On November 23, 2025, at about 2139 local time, a Piper PA-28R-201 Arrow III, N47700, registered to Indian River Flying Club Inc out of Rockledge, Florida, sustained substantial damage when it was involved in an accident near Pittsfield, Illinois. The pilot sustained fatal injuries, and two passengers sustained unknown injuries. The cross-country personal flight originated from the Anniston-County Airport (ANB/KANB), 
Anniston, Alabama, at about 1645 LT, and was presumably destined to Quincy Regional Airport (UIN/KUIN), Quincy, Illinois. Nighttime instrument meteorological conditions prevailed at the time of the accident.

According to preliminary Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B) data, the airplane departed KANB and proceeded to an inflight cruising altitude of 8,100 ft. About 2 hours into the flight, the airplane descended to about 7,700 ft and continued northwest. About 3h52m into the flight, the airplane started its descent towards Quincy. At 2052 LT, the airplane started the RNAV 22 approach to KUIN. At 2059 LT, the airplane was descending through 900 ft roughly 0.80 mile from the runway 22 threshold when it aborted its approach and began a go-around. At 2100, the airplane entered a climbing left hand turn to 2,000 ft. At 2103, the airplane entered a right turn towards the southeast and continued climbing to about 3,100 ft. At 2120, the airplane was at 2,300 ft and flying over the Pittsfield Penstone Municipal Airport (PPQ/KPPQ) in Pittsfield, Illinois. At 2125, the airplane had climbed to 3,000 ft and was flying north, presumably on its way back to Quincy. However, at 2127, the airplane entered a left hand turn and was now heading back towards Pittsfield. At 2134, the airplane was descending through 2,700 ft, ~1 mile west of the airport, but was unable to land and overflew the airport at 1,500 ft. At 2035, the airplane continued descending and entered a left hand turn. At 2136:23, the airplane was at 800 ft, 116 knots groundspeed, and descending north of KPPQ. The last ADS-B return was recorded north of Interstate 72 at Exit 35, 2.20 miles northeast of the airport. The airplane was at 900 ft, 99 knots GS, with a positive average rate of 960 feet per minute (fpm).

The wreckage was located a short time later by police. Local media reported that there were three occupants onboard. However, the FAA ASIAS reported said that the pilot was the fatality, and that three passengers sustained minor injuries.

Figure 1: ADS-B track towards end of flight ran through Flysto.

Figure 2: Missed approach at Quincy.

Figure 3: Attempted landings at Pittsfield with timeline.

Figure 4: End of track

- Pilot Information:
Unknown at this point.

- Airplane Information:
The four-seat, low-wing, retractable-gear airplane, serial number 28R-7837001, was manufactured in 1977. It was powered by a 200-horsepower Lycoming IO-360 engine driving a McCauley two-blade, constant-speed propeller.

The following are some specs of the accident aircraft model:

  • Best Cruise Speed: 138 KIAS
  • Best Range (i): 695 NM
  • Fuel Burn @ 75%: 11.6 GPH
  • Stall Speed: 55 KIAS
  • Rate of climb: 831 FPM
  • Gross Weight: 2,750 LBS
  • Empty Weight: 1,637 LBS
  • Fuel capacity: 72 GAL

- Wreckage and Impact Information:
The airplane came to rest upright and was not consumed by a post crash fire. The main wreckage consisted of the entire airplane, both wings and tail remained attached to the airframe. There was a small debris field leading to the main wreckage. At least two landing gears were noted in this debris field. The right wing appeared relatively intact and straight. The left wing was crumbled at the outboard tip. The outboard left elevator sustained notable impact damage. There was a cut in the front fuselage made by emergency personal to extract the victims.

Figure 5: Debris field

Figure 6: Aircraft Damage

- Airport Information:
KUIN is an uncontrolled airport. The airport field elevation was 768.7 ft. The airport features two runways, runway 4/22 and 13/31. There are several instrument approach procedures, including an RNAV (GPS) approach for runway 22.

KPPQ is an uncontrolled airport. The airport field elevation was 709.8 ft. The airport features a single runways 13/31. There are two instrument approach procedures, including an RNAV (GPS) approach for both 13 and 31.

The charted landing minimums at KUIN are a descent altitude of 1003 feet msl (250 feet agl), and a visibility of 3/4 mile.

According to the approach plate, during a missed approach procedure, aircraft must climb to 1300 then enter a climbing left turn to 2400 direct FANUT and hold.

- Weather:
The reported weather at KUIN, at 2054 included: winds 210 at 7 knots, 0.25 statute miles visibility, fog, a vertical visibility of 200 ft AGL, a temperature of 6° C, a dew point of 6° C, and a barometric altimeter setting of 30.13 inches of mercury.

The reported weather at KUIN, at 2154 included: winds 180 at 6 knots, 0.25 statute miles visibility, fog, a vertical visibility of 200 ft AGL, a temperature of 6° C, a dew point of 6° C, and a barometric altimeter setting of 30.14 inches of mercury.

The reported weather at KPPQ, at 2115 included: winds 190 at 3 knots, 3 statute miles visibility, no clouds under 12,000 ft AGL, a temperature of 6° C, a dew point of 5° C, and a barometric altimeter setting of 30.16 inches of mercury.

The reported weather at KPPQ, at 2135 included: winds 190 at 6 knots, 0.75 statute miles visibility, an overcast ceiling at 300 ft AGL, a temperature of 6° C, a dew point of 6° C, and a barometric altimeter setting of 30.16 inches of mercury.

The reported weather at KPPQ, at 2155 included: winds 180 at 6 knots, 0.25 statute miles visibility, an overcast ceiling at 300 ft AGL, a temperature of 7° C, a dew point of 6° C, and a barometric altimeter setting of 30.16 inches of mercury.

The following TAF (Terminal aerodrome forecast) was issued at the time of the airplane's departure from Alabama:

TAF KUIN 231725Z 2318/2418 00000KT P6SM SKC

FM231900 VRB03KT P6SM FEW250

FM240300 17007KT P6SM BKN025

The updated TAF after departure from:

TAF KUIN 232337Z 2400/2424 17005KT P6SM SKC

FM240200 17006KT 1/2SM FG BKN003

FM240400 17006KT 1/4SM FG OVC002

FM241400 16007KT 3SM BR OVC006

FM241900 18009KT 5SM -SHRA OVC015

(1) METARs:

METAR KUIN 240219Z AUTO 20005KT 1/4SM FG VV003 05/05 A3014 RMK AO2 T00500050
METAR KUIN 240254Z AUTO 21007KT 1/4SM FG VV002 06/06 A3013 RMK AO2 SLP207 T00560056 56003
METAR KUIN 240354Z AUTO 18006KT 1/4SM FG VV002 06/06 A3014 RMK AO2 SLP208 T00610061

METAR KUIN 240454Z AUTO 17005KT 1/4SM FG VV002 07/07 A3011 RMK AO2 SLP199 T00670067

METAR KPPQ 240255Z AUTO 19003KT 5SM CLR 05/05 A3016 RMK AO2 T00520050
METAR KPPQ 240315Z AUTO 19003KT 3SM CLR 06/05 A3016 RMK AO2 T00560054 
METAR KPPQ 240335Z AUTO 19006KT 3/4SM OVC003 06/06 A3016 RMK AO2 T00610059

METAR KPPQ 240355Z AUTO 18006KT 1/4SM OVC003 07/06 A3016 RMK AO2 T00650062

(2) Area Forecast Discussion:

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
508 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Widespread light rain will move over the area Monday afternoon and
overnight.

-Dry weather and below normal temperatures will enter Wednesday
 and persist through Friday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Monday Night)
Issued at 225 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

This morning`s stratus continues to linger across central and east-
central Missouri and into southern Illinois this afternoon. As low-
level warm air advection along southerly flow continues into this
evening and overnight, stratus will spread back out into areas that
have cleared today. Combined with incoming high clouds from an
approaching system, low temperatures tonight will remain elevated,
in the 40s, and several degrees warmer than last night.

Meanwhile, a strengthening mid-level trough is currently over the
Four Corners region, it`s associated surface low sitting over the
Texas panhandle. The mid-level trough will swing into the region
Monday, pushing the surface low through the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Warm air advection and low-level moisture convergence will produce
widespread rain during the afternoon and evening Monday, extending
overnight as the surface low moves east over the area. Everywhere
will see at least some rain, and about 70% of the area will see at
least 0.25" of rain. A few isolated areas may see up to 1.25" of
rain, but this depends on the heaviest rain moving over the same
area throughout the day.

Delia

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

While the first surface low will push east out of the region
Tuesday, another surface low will move through the upper Mississippi
Valley ahead of another mid-level trough moving from the Dakotas
into the Great Lakes region Tuesday. This second low will swing a
cold front through the forecast area Tuesday afternoon. While the
mid-levels will be dry along the western side of the first low,
lingering low-level moisture has a 20-30% chance of producing light
rain/drizzle across the area along the front. The surface pressure
gradient will tighten with the exit of this system, resulting in
elevated northwesterly winds Tuesday evening and overnight. The 850
mb front will slide through the forecast area overnight, and cold
Canadian air will surge into the region. After a mild day Tuesday
with highs in the 50s, the advancing of this cold air mass will
cause lows Tuesday night into Wednesday morning to drop into the 30s.

Ensemble guidances shows a clear cooling trend with this air mass,
resulting in highs in the 40s for the second half of the week,
including the Thanksgiving holiday. Under deep northwesterly flow,
the region will remain dry during this period.

Weak mid-level ridging returns to the area Friday into Saturday,
while another trough begins to dig into the West Coast. Flow quickly
becomes southwesterly over the weekend as the trough deepens into
the Four Corners region. At the same time, a surface low will
develop over the south-central US, with southwesterly flow and warm
air advection kicking off Saturday across our forecast area. Current
guidance shows warm air advection precipitation, potentially
interacting with a surface warm front, widespread across the region.
While some guidance sources are indicating that at least some of
this precipitation will fall as snow across the northern portions of
our forecast area, confidence in this occurring is very low. The
warm air advection nature of the precipitation, potentially falling
during the day, doesn`t provide a lot of confidence for snow to
maintain to the surface. Therefore we are continuing to forecast
mostly rain during this period. Even so, a number of details remain
in question at this point, including the timing and strength of the
surface low and upper level support, the strength of the warm air
advection, and timing of precipitation. All of this will determine
precipitation type with this system.

Delia

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 504 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

It will not be a great night for air travel as IFR/LIFR is
expected at all terminals. IFR stratus is expected to expand and
continue to build down to the surface, resulting in lowered cigs
and eventually vsbys at all sites tonight. The worst conditions
are expected at COU/UIN, where vsbys less than a half mile are
likely at times overnight. The forecast is a little more uncertain
in metro St. Louis as the edge of the stratus is currently near
CPS/STL. Even if they briefly go VFR, expect the stratus to fill
back in overnight with reductions in vsbys as well at all St.
Louis TAF sites.

Cigs will rise slightly through the day on Monday, but as that
occurs showers are expected to move through all terminals Monday
afternoon into Monday evening.
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1031 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

It will not be a great night for air travel as LIFR vsbys/cigs are
plaguing all terminals. Expect all terminals to remain socked in
with 1/4SM fog for most of the overnight hours. We should see
improvement to vsbys first at KJEF/KCOU as thicker mid-level
clouds move in, along with some increasing southerly flow and
associated weak warm air advection. All sites are expected to
improve their vsbys by later Monday morning, but incoming light
rain will keep at least MVFR vsbys/cigs through much of the day,
lasting into tonight.

Deitsch

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for Audrain MO-Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
     Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
     MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-
     Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-
     Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for Adams IL-Bond IL-
     Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey
     IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

- Additional Information:
None at this time.