Piper PA-28-235 Cherokee, N8777W, fatal accident occurred on October 24, 2026, near Gunnison, Colorado

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this writing will be corrected when/if the NTSB preliminary report is released.

https://registry.faa.gov/AircraftInquiry/Search/NNumberResult?nNumberTxt=N8777W

- History of Flight:
On October 24, 2026, at about 0822 local time, a Piper PA-28-235 Cherokee, N8777W. registered to Hendi Aviation LLC out of New Castle, Colorado, was destroyed when it was involved in an accident near Gunnison, Colorado. The non-instrument rated private pilot and two passengers were fatally injured. The personal flight originated from Garfield County Regional Airport (RIL/KRIL), Rifle, Colorado, and was presumably destined to Crested Butte Regional Airport (GUC/KGUC), Gunnison, Colorado.

Flight-tracking history shows that, on October 10, 2026, the airplane departed on an early morning flight from KGUC to KRIL and followed a similar path to the accident flight. However in that flight, the airplane was cruising at 12,400 ft above mountainous terrain.

According to Automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) data, at 0742, the airplane departed KRIL and entered a climbing right turn to an altitude of 10,000 ft, flying to the southeast in what looked like a return trip to the October 10th flight. At 0819:47, the airplane was observed making a 180 right turn to the northwest. The airplane maintained an altitude of 10,000 ft. At 0822:13, the last ADS-B data point was recorded at 10,300 ft, 110 knots groundspeed, and +250 feet per minute (fpm) vertical rate.

Figure 1: Entire Track

Figure 2: Towards end of track, note that the solid straight line are missing ADS-B data points, as the airplane likely maneuvered through mountains

Figure 3: End of track and earlier missing data points showing the general area of the accident site

The average terrain elevation surrounding the last ADS-B data point ranged from 9,700 ft to 11,500 ft.

- Pilot Information:
The pilot, aged 46, held a private pilot certificate (last issued/updated 4/3/2024) with an airplane single engine land rating. The pilot did not hold an instrument rating. His FAA BasicMed Course was dated 6/18/2024.

- Airplane Information:
The accident airplane, serial number 28-10321, was manufactured in 1964. It was a four-seat, low-wing, fixed gear airplane and powered by a Lycoming O-540 engine. An old sale listing stated that the airplane was IFR equipped.

- Wreckage and Impact Information:
Unknown.

- Weather:
(1) Brief:

At 0756, the nearest airport, KGUC, was reporting winds 310 at 5 knots, 6 miles visibility, rain and mist, a broken cloud layer at 3,200 ft AGL, an overcast ceiling at 4,400 ft AGL, temperature 1 °C, dewpoint 1 °C, and an altimeter setting of 30.28 inches of mercury.

At 0856, the nearest airport, KGUC, was reporting winds 020 at 7 knots, 10 miles visibility few clouds at 3,600 ft AGL, a broken cloud layer at 3,200 and 5,000 ft AGL, temperature 2 °C, dewpoint 1 °C, and an altimeter setting of 30.30 inches of mercury.

A review of the Graphical Area Forecast (GFA) map for the general area showed that a convective SIGMET for thunderstorms was reported at 0755 with the possibility of severe turbulence, icing, hail, and lightning (figure 4). Note that the pink line shows the straight track from KRIL to KGUC, and note that the GFA are from 0815.

At 0548, a G-AIRMET was issued in the area for mountain obscuration, and was still valid through 0900 (see figure 5).

Figure 6 shows the precipitation GFA for the area.

Figure 7 shows the thunderstorm GFA for the area.

Figure 8 shows the temperatures GFA for the area.

Figure 9 shows the winds for the area.

Figure 10 shows the presence of moderate turbulence in the area at 12,000 ft.

Figure 11 shows the presence of moderate to light icing in the area at 12,000 ft. Additionally, a G-AIRMET was issued for moderate icing west of the accident area starting from 0245 and was valid through 0900 with a base of 10,000 ft and a top of 20,000 ft.

Figure 4: CIG/VIS

Figure 5: Clouds

Figure 6: Precipitation

Figure 7: Thunderstorms

Figure 8: Temperatures

Figure 9: Winds

Figure 10: Turbulence

Figure 11: Icing

(2) METARs:

METAR KRIL 241353Z AUTO 00000KT CLR 03/02 A3015 RMK AO2 SLP188 T00330022 $

METAR KRIL 241453Z AUTO 08004KT CLR 05/04 A3016 RMK AO2 SLP194 T00500039 53009 $

METAR KGUC 241356Z AUTO 31005KT 6SM RA BR BKN032 OVC044 01/01 A3028 RMK AO2 UPB27E35RAB35 SLP236 P0006 T00110006 FZRANO $

METAR KGUC 241456Z AUTO 02007KT 10SM FEW036 BKN045 BKN050 02/01 A3030 RMK AO2 RAE51 SLP246 P0005 60011 T00170011 51020 FZRANO $

METAR KASE 241353Z 17005KT 10SM CLR 01/M02 A3021 RMK AO2 SLP180 T00061017

METAR KASE 241453Z 00000KT 10SM CLR 03/M01 A3023 RMK AO2 SLP183 T00331011 53009

METAR KMTJ 241353Z AUTO 09007KT 10SM -RA BKN050 OVC070 07/04 A3016 RMK AO2 RAB19 SLP175 P0002 T00670044

METAR KMTJ 241453Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 08/06 A3015 RMK AO2 RAE07 SLP176 P0000 60002 T00780056 50012

(3) Area Forecast Discussion:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
547 AM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flooding is ongoing across portions of southeast Utah and
  southwest Colorado, and is expected to continue through
  Saturday.

- While some rivers have crested, some rivers will experience
  their crest Saturday.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected Saturday.
  They will be capable of producing moderate to heavy rainfall
  that could result in additional flooding.

- A few storms may be capable of producing strong winds and
  large hail Saturday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1044 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

ONGOING FLOODING WITH MORE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND:

The low pressure system responsible for pulling in the tropical
moisture that resulted in the abundant rainfall the last couple
days is sitting over southern California and Nevada. This low
pressure system is expected to move into Arizona by Saturday
afternoon and lift northeast across Utah and western Colorado
during the day on Sunday and exiting to the northeast by Monday
morning. As this happens, the low pressure system will pull
another round of moisture around the low from the southeast on
Saturday. The latest hi-res CAMs indicate convection developing
across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado overnight into
Saturday morning with more scattered to widespread showers and
storms spreading further north Saturday afternoon and evening,
favoring areas along and south of I-70. While the deep tropical
moisture has vacated the region, PWAT anomalies with this push
of moisture are projected to be around 200 percent of normal,
which while not as high as a few days ago, is still enough to
cause issues and heavy rainfall. The main concern is that many
areas are already saturated from previous rainfall and there is
ongoing flooding with many rivers and creeks running high. So
any additional rainfall, especially where stronger convection
occurs could result in more flooding and continuation of ongoing
flooding. The rainfall amounts through Sunday are expected to
range from 0.5-1.0 inches along the highway 160 corridor with
slightly higher amounts in the mountains and lower amounts
outside of southwest Colorado. While we could see gusty winds
and hail with a few storms, the main concern is heavy rainfall.
Hi res CAMs appear to show convection winding down Saturday
night with some isolated showers lingering. Showers become more
isolated to scattered on Sunday as the low pressure lifts
overhead, but these showers are expected to be lighter than
previous few days. Conditions begin to dry out Monday as this
low lifts northeast over the Plains.

DRYING OUT NEXT WEEK:

As we move towards next week, models are also in fairly good
agreement that dry zonal flow will begin to propagate through the
region by Monday. Because of this, we will be seeing cooler
than normal temperatures, with the potential for overnight lows
to drop below freezing for a couple hours at a time. Meanwhile,
a low pressure system looks to enter the Pacific Northwest with
a few shortwaves moving across the Northern Rockies through the
week potentially bringing light showers to the north but
overall, conditions appear to dry out until late next week when
showers potentially return as a shortwave trough moves through
the Desert SW and 4 Corners region pulling in some Pacific
moisture. Keep in mind, this is still relatively far out, so
confidence remains low on this matter as model solutions are
varied.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

The first set of showers and storms is currently moving across
the area from south to north. KDRO, KTEX, KCNY and KMTJ will be
under the gun this morning for these showers, possibly a
quick storm. A second push of storms and showers will begin
mid-morning and continue through the day with a noticeable
increase in coverage from 18z onwards. More showers and storms
are expected with this second push. TAF sites may flirt with
IFR/MVFR conditions briefly if a stronger shower/cell moves
overhead and drops vis/cigs. Despite that, do anticipate VFR
conditions to remain predominant. Gusty outflow winds can also
be expected near and under any convection.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1044 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Hydrologic concerns remain elevated through Saturday due to the
widespread excessive rainfall. Some locations in the southern
San Juan mountains have received 3-6 inches of rain since
Wednesday afternoon. Potential hazards through Saturday include
localized flash flooding from thunderstorms producing heavy
rainfall rates and river flooding due to a prolonged period of
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall. Several river gauges are
near or past crest, but a few downstream locations are not
expected to reach crest until Saturday.

There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall Saturday across
eastern Utah and western Colorado, mainly along and south of
I-70. Precipitation amounts of 1-2 inches will be possible over
the San Juans with 0.5 to 1 inch across the southern valleys.
An additional concern is of rain on snow leading to more runoff
making it into the waterways. Snow levels are forecast around
11-13 kft, which will likely result in melting of some of the
existing early-season snow pack. The combined runoff from rain
and rain-on-snow will result in a rapid rise in many of our
creeks, streams and rivers. If heavy rainfall occurs many of the
streams and rivers could experience additional crests.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for COZ017>023.
UT...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for UTZ022-027>029.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MDA/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT

- Additional Information:
None.